This page provides an overview of regional forecast skill for the SON 2025 period. Forecast scores are updated automatically every week throughout the competitive period. The current data includes 12 forecasts initialized between Thursday 14th August 2025 and Thursday 30th October 2025 (inclusive). For a detailed description of the outputs, please refer to the section's overview .
Regional skill score files
All regional RPSSs are available to download via the following link:
SON 2025 Regional RPSSs (Excel format)
Regional scores for the top 10 teams of global, period-aggregated, variable-averaged RPSSs
Forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.09 0.128 0.059 0.049 0.063 0.026 0.037 0.081 0.078 0.132 0.094 0.119 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.084 0.116 0.061 0.039 0.064 0.041 0.034 0.077 0.067 0.142 0.093 0.108 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 9 0.049 0.054 0.042 0.039 0.059 0.02 0.018 0.074 0.01 0.029 0.063 0.085 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 3 0.074 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.041 0.001 0.015 0.08 0.077 0.14 0.075 0.073 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 4 0.071 0.127 0.019 0.012 0.019 0.004 0.009 0.054 0.123 0.139 0.057 0.065 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 11 0.008 0.022 0.011 0.003 0.007 -0.073 0.027 0.052 0.021 -0.013 0.016 -0.017 LP 3 LPM 5 0.067 0.093 0.052 0.025 0.058 0.012 0.013 0.072 0.047 0.102 0.089 0.086 AIFS 4 AIFShera 6 0.059 0.076 0.046 0.02 0.056 0.013 0.022 0.073 0.068 0.086 0.068 0.087 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 7 0.055 0.08 0.039 -0.0 0.043 0.009 0.028 0.066 0.034 0.089 0.059 0.08 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 8 0.055 0.072 0.046 0.01 0.058 0.006 0.032 0.068 0.036 0.068 0.078 0.065 scienceAI 5 findforecast 10 0.009 0.007 0.005 0.013 0.009 0.016 0.005 0.034 -0.005 0.011 -0.005 0.024 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.002 0.002 0.007 -0.003 0.007 -0.005 -0.006 0.01 -0.012 0.01 0.009 0.009 scienceAI 5 zephyr 13 0.001 -0.001 0.003 0.001 0.003 0.005 -0.001 0.008 -0.002 0.0 0.0 0.001 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.071 -0.081 -0.099 -0.066 -0.04 -0.009 -0.071 -0.058 -0.078 -0.119 -0.092 -0.049 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 17 -0.289 -0.324 -0.31 -0.305 -0.254 -0.182 -0.196 -0.202 -0.227 -0.368 -0.404 -0.369 WindBorne 7 WeatherMesh 15 -0.149 -0.093 -0.115 -0.283 -0.118 -0.563 -0.192 -0.134 -0.148 -0.057 -0.06 -0.195 HAPPY 8 AZN 16 -0.202 -0.22 -0.207 -0.579 -0.147 -0.021 -0.158 -0.147 -0.306 -0.159 -0.241 -0.411 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 18 -0.303 -0.287 -0.304 -0.377 -0.254 -0.369 -0.342 -0.188 -0.252 -0.312 -0.34 -0.398 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 20 -0.362 -0.384 -0.365 -0.373 -0.272 -0.463 -0.351 -0.253 -0.348 -0.39 -0.393 -0.422 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 22 -0.456 -0.487 -0.458 -0.494 -0.352 -0.481 -0.451 -0.381 -0.511 -0.421 -0.443 -0.594 JR 10 slowMamba 19 -0.318 -0.287 -0.29 -0.335 -0.349 -0.445 -0.335 -0.386 -0.427 -0.19 -0.265 -0.225
Forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Team name Team rank Model name Model rank Global Tropics NHem. ExTro. SHem. ExTro. NHem. Polar SHem. Polar Europe N. Amer. S. Amer. Africa Asia Oceania MicroEnsemble 1 MicroDuet 1 0.066 0.096 0.037 0.047 0.045 0.038 0.021 0.076 0.052 0.114 0.059 0.073 MicroEnsemble 1 StillLearning 2 0.064 0.09 0.039 0.034 0.047 0.056 0.021 0.071 0.045 0.119 0.061 0.065 MicroEnsemble 1 Huracan 8 0.033 0.04 0.016 0.039 0.042 0.024 -0.002 0.068 0.003 0.032 0.029 0.043 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunAdjust 3 0.05 0.092 0.011 0.014 0.009 0.013 0.008 0.049 0.069 0.124 0.038 0.031 CMAandFDU 2 FengshunHybrid 4 0.046 0.077 0.025 0.021 0.013 0.002 0.023 0.06 0.028 0.1 0.041 0.036 CMAandFDU 2 Fengshun 10 0.006 0.015 0.016 0.01 0.002 -0.061 0.031 0.048 0.024 0.005 -0.003 -0.026 LP 3 LPM 5 0.043 0.061 0.028 0.015 0.042 0.028 0.008 0.063 0.003 0.077 0.055 0.037 AIFS 4 AIFSgaia 6 0.034 0.046 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.013 0.055 0.022 0.042 0.027 0.045 AIFS 4 AIFShera 7 0.034 0.052 0.015 0.007 0.023 0.013 0.005 0.043 0.045 0.055 0.029 0.053 AIFS 4 AIFSthalassa 9 0.017 0.008 0.019 -0.0 0.03 0.03 0.011 0.051 0.009 -0.022 0.03 0.024 scienceAI 5 findforecast 11 0.003 -0.002 0.003 0.008 0.007 0.017 0.015 0.03 -0.01 0.01 -0.013 0.008 scienceAI 5 ngcm 12 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 -0.004 0.004 -0.001 -0.001 -0.007 0.007 0.005 0.001 scienceAI 5 zephyr 13 0.001 0.0 0.002 0.004 -0.003 0.008 0.003 0.002 -0.004 0.005 -0.001 0.002 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather2 14 -0.098 -0.115 -0.141 -0.076 -0.05 -0.005 -0.12 -0.079 -0.099 -0.16 -0.135 -0.096 CliMA 6 CliMAWeather 19 -0.333 -0.378 -0.325 -0.332 -0.298 -0.282 -0.215 -0.202 -0.282 -0.432 -0.435 -0.394 HAPPY 7 AZN 15 -0.24 -0.268 -0.255 -0.649 -0.177 0.001 -0.239 -0.182 -0.395 -0.204 -0.261 -0.431 WindBorne 8 WeatherMesh 16 -0.292 -0.262 -0.174 -0.537 -0.217 -0.763 -0.213 -0.272 -0.281 -0.136 -0.159 -0.54 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S1 17 -0.326 -0.304 -0.36 -0.372 -0.354 -0.275 -0.365 -0.282 -0.249 -0.333 -0.38 -0.372 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S3 21 -0.423 -0.479 -0.37 -0.341 -0.377 -0.454 -0.363 -0.273 -0.448 -0.527 -0.44 -0.419 NordicS2S 9 NordicS2S2 22 -0.487 -0.49 -0.519 -0.504 -0.4 -0.544 -0.482 -0.438 -0.537 -0.5 -0.489 -0.413 JR 10 slowMamba 18 -0.327 -0.298 -0.298 -0.324 -0.42 -0.393 -0.381 -0.365 -0.429 -0.225 -0.292 -0.242
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Weekly RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Aggregated RPSSs for variable-averaged (average), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Near-surface air temperature (tas), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Mean sea level pressure (mslp), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 1 (days 19 to 25)
Accumulated precipitation (pr), forecast window 2 (days 26 to 32)
