EFAS medium-range forecast performance is summarised in the query-able "Medium-range forecast skill" layer. 

Headline medium-range forecast skill score 

The headline medium-range ensemble forecast skill score is the maximum lead time (in days), up to 10-days ahead, in which the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS) is greater than a value of 0.5, when compared to a simple persistence benchmark forecast. It is provided for all EFAS reporting points. Details on the method can be found in EFAS medium-range forecast skill .

The headline score is provided as colour-coded map where stations with darker colours have high skill at longer lead times. The category "0-1", marked as grey circles, represents stations that have forecast skill lower than the 0.5 threshold for one day lead time or more.

Note: CRPSS <0.5 does not mean that the forecast has no skill at that station. This is only true (against the chosen benchmark forecasts; here persistence) when the CRPSS ≤ 0. This information is not covered in this layer.

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Time-series skill plot showing CRPS and resulting CRPSS.