Placeholder page for the new EFAS Flood Probability Persistence as part of EFAS v5.2 release Juan Pereira Colonese, Jesus Casado Rodriguez and Corentin Carton de Wiart to populate!
The flood probability layer shows pixels in the river network with a minimum upstream area of 50 km² where EFAS forecasts a flood, indicating both the flood recurrence and total exceedance probability.
The map exhibits the probabilities of exceeding the 2-year (yellow), 5-year (red), and 20-year (purple) EFAS return periods. It considers the maximum probability for each recurrence level across the complete lead time range (10 days). This layer is used in the definition of the dynamic reporting points, in a way that no dynamic point is generated below the minimum probability thresholds (50% 2-year / 40% 5-year/ 40% 20-year). Is this correct? Or the dynamic reporting points should be created for probabilities above 40% at 5 and 20 year return periods, as this is the threshold used for informal notifications Juan Pereira Colonese Corentin Carton de Wiart
Figure 1. Example of the Flood probability layer on the forecast June 25 2024 12 UTC.
Note. For an explanation on the computation of total probabilities, see this link.