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Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
1. Impact
On 9 October torrential rainfall hit parts of Majorca and killed at least 10 people. Locally more than 200 mm of rain was reported.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978
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The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show observations of total precipitation in 24 h and radar image and station reports.
Lightning observations and Baleares radar image at peak time:
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
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The panel plot below show Lightning density, EFI CAPE and EFI CAPE-SHEAR for day 2 and severe weather report valid for 9th October 2018. .
Comparison of a the raw ensemble CDF in the maximum precipitation point with the point rainfall in the same point for 12h precipitation forecast. Base time 9th October 2018 and valid at lead time 24 h.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
Comparison of a the raw ensemble CDF in the maximum precipitation point with the point rainfall in the same point for 12h precipitation forecast. Base time 9th October 2018 and valid at lead time 24 h.
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6. Additional material
Observations total precipitation in 24 h and radar image:
Lightning observations and Baleares radar image at peak time:
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