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In this section an overview of the dataset is provided (Table 2-1).
Table 2-1: Overview of key characteristics of the water level change indicatorAnchor table2 table2
Data Description | |
Dataset title | Global sea level change indicators from 1950 to 2050 derived from high resolution CMIP6 climate projections |
Data type | Indicators |
Topic category | Sea and coastal regions, Natural hazard |
Sector | Coastal flood risk, integrated coastal zone management, harbor and port |
Keyword | Extreme sea level, CMIP6, indicator |
Domain | Global |
Horizontal resolution | Coastal grid points: 0.1° |
Temporal coverage | Statistics for historical: from 1951 to 1980 |
Temporal resolution | No temporal resolution as the indicators are derived from the 10-min time series and represents statistics over the temporal coverage |
Vertical coverage | Surface |
Update frequency | No updates expected |
Version | 1.0 |
Model | Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) version 3.0 |
Provider | Deltares (Kun Yan) |
Terms of Use | Copernicus Product License |
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Table 2-5: Overview scenarios and epochs in the water level change time series simulationAnchor table7 table7
Scenario | Type | Period | Meteorological forcing |
ERA5 Reanalysis | Climate reanalysis | 1979-2018 | ERA5 |
Historical | Baseline climate scenario | 1950-2014 | HighResMIp ensemble, consisting of a mix of SST-forced (HadGEM3GC31-HM, and GFDL-CMC192) and coupled (EC-Earth3P-HR, CMCC-CM2-VHR4, and HadGEM3-GC31-HM) climate simulations |
Future | Future climate scenario based on SSP5-8.5 | 2015-2050 | HighResMIP ensemble, consisting of a mix of SST-forced (HadGEM3-GC31-HM and GFDL-CMC192) and coupled (ECEarth3P-HR, CMCC-CM2-VHR4, and HadGEM3-GC31-HM) climate simulations |
Tide only | Tide-only simulation | 1950-2050 | N/A |
Model / Algorithm
Global Tide and Surge Modelling (GTSM)
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In summary, the validation demonstrates a good model performance of GTSMv3.0 on representing total water-levels, tides and storm surges. The high accuracy is the result of the continuous model developments, which has been focused at improving the model physics, grid resolution, and input datasets. GTSM is capable of simulation of historical events as well as multi-decadal simulations for historical and future climate scenarios.
Concluding Remarks
Use of the dataset
This dataset presents sea level change indicators resulting from tides, surges and sea level rise computed for the whole globe. The dataset is based on the multi-model HighResMIP ensemble, one of the CMIP6 model experiments. The projections cover the period 1950-2050 and are based on SSP5-8.5. The dataset constitutes a major improvement compared to dataset provided in the C3S 422 Lot2 contract, which was limited to the pan-European domain and included a single CMIP5 model.
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A: Both historical and future period simulations include spatially-varying sea level rise (SLR) contributions. The SLR fields are computed using a probabilistic model (Le Bars, 2018) based on observations (1950-2015) and CMIP5 climate models according to RCP8.5 for 2016-2050 and hence is independent of the model selection in this catalouge entry. Included are changes in sea level from various processes including thermal expansion of the ocean, changes in ocean circulation, ice sheet contributions, and glacio-isostatic adjustment (but not subsidence or tectonics). The annual SLR fields are referenced to the mean level over the period 1986–2005, with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° and interpolated to the model grid using nearest neighbor. The SLR field is used to initialize the GTSM model at annual timesteps.,
References
Dullaart, J.C.M., Muis, S., Bloemendaal, N. & Aerts, J. C. H. (2020). Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis. Climate Dynamics 54, 1007–1021, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05044-0
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