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A: Both historical and future period simulations include spatially-varying sea level rise (SLR) contributions. The SLR fields are computed using a probabilistic model (Le Bars, 2018) based on observations (1950-2015) and CMIP5 climate models according to RCP8.5 for 2016-2050 and hence is independent of the model selection in this catalouge entry. Included are changes in sea level from various processes including thermal expansion of the ocean, changes in ocean circulation, ice sheet contributions, and glacio-isostatic adjustment (but not subsidence or tectonics). The annual SLR fields are referenced to the mean level over the period 1986–2005, with a spatial resolution of 1° × 1° and interpolated to the model grid using nearest neighbor. The SLR field is used to initialize the GTSM model at annual timesteps.
Q: Is the model output at 10-minute temporal resolution physically realistic?
The 10-minutes time series are physically realistic because two types of forcing are used; tidal forcing and meteorological forcing. The tidal forcing is internally generated based on position of the earth, moon and sun. The meteorological forcing is available at hourly (or coarser) resolution and is internally interpolated to the model timestep. Since tides vary at high-frequency and produce non-linear interactions with storm surges (the sum of the two is different from the individual components), we use a temporal resolution of 10-minutes to capture the high frequency signal. This is especially relevant for stations on wide and shallow continental shelves, such as the North Sea, where an hourly resolution may be too coarse and potentially miss the peaks in water level. For further details on the model and validation, see Kernkamp et al. (2011) and Muis et al. (2016, 2022).
References
Dullaart, J.C.M., Muis, S., Bloemendaal, N. & Aerts, J. C. H. (2020). Advancing global storm surge modelling using the new ERA5 climate reanalysis. Climate Dynamics 54, 1007–1021, doi:10.1007/s00382-019-05044-0
Egbert, G. D., and Ray, R. D. (2001). Estimates of M2 tidal energy dissipation from TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data, J. Geophys. Res., 106(C10), 22475–22502, doi:10.1029/2000JC000699.Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Verlaan, M., Zijl, F., Le Coz, C., & Kernkamp, H. (2017). Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf. Ocean Dynamics, 67(6), 729-749
Haarsma, R. J., Roberts, M. J., Vidale, P. L., Senior, C. A., Bellucci, A., Bao, Q., Chang, P., Corti, S., Fučkar, N. S., Guemas, V., von Hardenberg, J., Hazeleger, W., Kodama, C., Koenigk, T., Leung, L. R., Lu, J., Luo, J.-J., Mao, J., Mizielinski, M. S., Mizuta, R., Nobre, P., Satoh, M., Scoccimarro, E., Semmler, T., Small, J., and von Storch, J.-S.: High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 4185–4208, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4185-2016, 2016.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., et al., (2020) The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royan Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803.1002/qj.3803
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Verlaan, M., Zijl, F., Le Coz, C., & Kernkamp, H. (2017). Effects of self-attraction and loading at a regional scale: a test case for the Northwest European Shelf. Ocean Dynamics, 67(6), 729-749
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Rego, J., Verlaan, M (2018) GTSM setup and validation. Project report C3S_422_Lot2_Deltares - European Services
Irazoqui Apecechea, M., Muis, S (2019) D422Lot2.DEL.2.5_GTSM_setup_validation. Project report C3S_422 Lot2 DeltaresIrazoqui Apecechea, M
Kernkamp, H. W. J., RegoVan Dam, JA., Verlaan, M (2018) GTSM setup and validation. Project report C3S_422_Lot2_Deltares - European Services, Stelling, G. S. & de Goede, E. D. (2011) Efficient scheme for the shallow water equations on unstructured grids with application to the Continental Shelf. Ocean Dyn. 61, 1175–1188.
(2018) Uncertainty in sea level rise projections due to the dependence between contributors.Earth's Future, 6, 1275– 1291. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000849
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