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table1
table1
Table 1: Demand model performance for France.

Step

RMSE (MWh)

MAPE (%)

1. Trend estimation

18430.5

1.04

2. Training

18392.2

1.03

3. Validation

20314.9

1.17


The complete validation for all countries based on RMSE and MAPE values is provided in Table 2. The scatter plots of reconstructed versus actual load are presented in Figure 6.

Table 2: Validation scores (step 3). The correlation coefficient is calculated against ENTSOE data over the same period for all countries, 2015-2018

Country

Training period

Validation Period

RMSE

MAPE

Correlation

AT

2011-2014

2015-2018

2926

1,16

0,99

BA

2010-2014

2015-2018

698

1,53

0,97

BE

2010-2014

2015-2018

5919

1,86

0,97

BG

2010-2014

2015-2018

2040

1,53

0,91

CH

2015-2017

2018

6238

3,04

0,95

CZ

2010-2014

2015-2018

3060

1,26

0,97

DE

2010-2014

2015-2018

29219

1,46

0,98

DK

2010-2014

2015-2018

2134

1,77

0,98

EE

2010-2014

2015-2018

487

1,71

0,96

EL

2006-2014

2015-2018

4571

2,60

0,97

ES

2010-2014

2015-2018

12532

1,36

0,98

FI

2006-2014

2015-2018

6553

2,04

0,98

FR

2010-2014

2015-2018

20064

1,17

1,00

HR

2006-2014

2015-2018

1067

1,76

0,95

HU

2010-2014

2015-2018

2192

1,43

0,94

IE

2010-2014

2015-2018

1252

1,24

0,92

IT

2006-2014

2015-2018

20558

1,93

0,99

LT

2006-2014

2015-2018

667

1,66

0,92

LU

2010-2014

2015-2018

1213

5,51

0,66

LV

2010-2014

2015-2018

399

1,50

0,98

ME

2010-2014

2015-2018

325

2,66

0,94

MK

2010-2014

2015-2018

924

3,80

0,93

NL

2010-2014

2015-2018

7874

1,68

0,95

NO

2010-2014

2015-2018

8622

1,79

0,98

PL

2010-2014

2015-2018

8152

1,44

0,96

PT

2010-2014

2015-2018

2432

1,26

0,97

RO

2006-2014

2015-2018

4254

2,09

0,92

RS

2010-2014

2015-2018

1927

1,36

0,99

SE

2010-2014

2015-2018

10973

2,14

0,99

SI

2011-2014

2015-2018

854

1,73

0,95

SK

2010-2014

2015-2018

1221

1,19

0,96

UK

2010-2014

2015-2018

33276

2,76

0,93

Anchor
figure6
figure6

Figure 6: Reconstructed versus actual load. Pearson correlation coefficient indicated in each panel

...

Anchor
table3
table3
Table 3: Main features of climate variables used in the model.

Climate variables

Temperature

Precipitation

Snow depth

Method of lag calculation

Mean

Sum

Sum

Maximum lag time (days)

100

200

200

Included in validation tests

Yes

Yes

Yes

Included in final model

Yes

Yes

No

As with any statistical model, it is better to avoid using too many input variables as they can cause overfitting, and the model can essentially interpret noise as a signal. To avoid this problem, two steps of Random Forest are implemented subsequently. Figure 7 illustrates the main processes including in the 2-step model.

...

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table4
table4
Table 4: Summary table of indicators calculated. ✅: done and available; ⚙: work in progress; grey cells mean indicator is not calculated


Grid

NUTS2/MAR1

NUTS0/MAR0

Indicator

01h

01d

01m

03m

12m

01h

01d

01m

03m

12m

01h

01d

01m

03m

12m

EDM
NRG












✅

✅$

✅

✅

EDM
PWR












✅

✅

✅

✅

HRE CFR












âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

HRE NRG












✅

✅$

✅

✅

HRE PWR












✅

✅

✅

✅

HRO CFR












âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

HRO NRG












✅

✅

✅

✅$

HRO
PWR












✅$

✅$

✅

✅$

SPV CFR

✅

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅$

✅

✅

✅

✅$

SPV NRG

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

WON
CFR

✅$

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅$

WON
NRG

⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙

WON
PWR

⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙

WOF CFR

✅

âš™

âš™

âš™

âš™

✅

✅

✅

✅

✅$

✅

✅

✅$

✅

✅$

WOF
NRG

⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙

WOF
PWR

⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙⚙

Seasonal Forecast stream

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figure12
figure12

...

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table5
table5
Table 5: List of the 11 EURO-CORDEX simulations and the institutes that provided the data.

Driving GCM

RCM

Contact

Period

ECEARTH

HIRAM

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

1951 - 2100

ECEARTH

RACMO

Royal Netherlands National Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

1950 - 2100

ECEARTH

RCA

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
(SMHI)

1970 - 2100

HADGEM

RACMO

Royal Netherlands National Meteorological Institute (KNMI)

1951 - 2098

HADGEM

RCA

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
(SMHI)

1970 - 2098

HADGEM

REGCM

International Centre for Theoretical Physics

1971 - 2099

IPSL

WRF 381P

Institute Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL)

1951 - 2100

MPI

RCA

Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)

1970 - 2100

MPI

CCLM

Climate Limited-area Modelling Community

1950 - 2100

NORESM

HIRAM

Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)

1951 - 2100

CNRM

ALADIN63

CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France)

1952 - 2100


Data files were provided in NetCDF format. As a first step, a quality check was performed on the data files, considering time series length and consistency of initial dates and calendar. The performed corrections included:

...

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table6
table6
Table 6 : list of countries included in the level-0 European maritime area

#

ISO_Ter1

Sovereign1

x_1

y_1

Area_km2

1

FRA

France

-

1.96612922953

46.0421241338

344395

2

ITA

Italy

12.9278577687

39.6546686322

536134

3

HRV

Croatia

15.6521837248

43.4300621862

55301

4

POL

Poland

17.290603293

54.9085653054

29847

5

ROU

Romania

30.0785047918

44.2410925738

29545

6

EST

Estonia

23.0023188331

58.7701196016

36257

7

BIH

Bosnia and Herzegovina

17.5925605485

42.9165596313

13

8

SWE

Sweden

18.1151682684

59.4854995664

154510

9

FIN

Finland

21.88918562

61.7548366612

81072

10

BEL

Belgium

2.70503854662

51.4654455537

3482

11

LTU

Lithuania

20.3641170157

55.7552690241

6800

12

DEU

Germany

8.39440118787

54.5535395805

56512

13

NLD

Netherlands

4.1865445206

53.6120782113

64058

14

IRL

Ireland

-

11.7463132477

52.652694236

425346

15

PRT

Portugal

-10.922837746

38.3192142122

315287

16

MLT

Malta

15.1112067205

35.3135543136

52923

17

CYP

Cyprus

32.6352575462

34.4892906437

98468

18

MNE

Montenegro

18.6801469453

41.8702342631

6374

19

GRC

Greece

23.9324458505

36.5071422798

482784

20

BGR

Bulgaria

29.2016465481

42.9339561782

34685

21

ALB

Albania

19.1130007712

40.927083965

12150

22

ESP

Spain

-4.1580121227

41.7220128715

560957

23

SVN

Slovenia

13.5789620717

45.5628748746

214

24

GBR

United Kingdom

-

4.29778889925

56.7858807367

729123

25

LVA

Latvia

21.3519656539

57.1043333209

28212

26

DNK

Denmark

9.24983395975

56.1421317006

104521

27

NOR

Norway

14.0571352197

68.188925744

926633


The shape file of the level-0 European maritime area "EuropeanContinentalMaritimeAreas_Level0_v1.1.shp" can be downloaded with the following link: https://cloud.mines-paristech.fr/index.php/s/EAQo2mv8sVQ2VSz

Level 1: Regional maritime areas

...

Anchor
annex1
annex1
Annex 1: List of level-1 maritime regions


#


fid_2


MarRegion_


IHO_Sea_2


EEZ_2


Territor_1


ISO_Ter1_2


Longitude_


Latitude_2


Area_km2_2

1

540

United Kingdom part of the North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

-

8,803996901

58,60636016

246636,23

2

536

United Kingdom part of the Celtic Sea

Celtic Sea

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

-

6,906541431

49,98005238

71383,06

3

920494

Spanish Northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

-10,4609299

43,60665684

229681,66

4

88

Croatian part of the Adriatic Sea

Adriatic Sea

Croatian Exclusive Economic Zone

Croatia

HRV

15,65218372

43,43006219

55449,82

5

542

United Kingdom part of
the Norwegian Sea

Norwegian Sea

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

-

0,593017339

62,09991306

49621,08

6

910494

Spanish Southern part of the North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

-10,4609299

43,60665684

229681,66


7


539

United Kingdom part of the Irish Sea and St.
George's Channel

Irish Sea and St. George's Channel


United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone


United Kingdom


GBR

-

4,500524845


53,56714006


35401,37

8

541

United Kingdom part of the North Sea

North Sea

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

0,330175058

56,6886782

245786,5

9

537

United Kingdom part of
the English Channel

English Channel

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

-

2,418857507

50,2296143

36133,59


10


538

United Kingdom part of the Inner Seas off the
West Coast of Scotland

Inner Seas off the West Coast
of Scotland


United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone


United Kingdom


GBR

-

6,278850526


56,5319611


38439,5

11

509

Swedish part of the Skagerrak

Skagerrak

Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone

Sweden

SWE

10,88015531

58,37510101

6484,77

12

535

United Kingdom part of the Bristol Channel

Bristol Channel

United Kingdom Exclusive Economic Zone

United Kingdom

GBR

-

4,019354412

51,39222851

5747,99

13

507

Swedish part of the Gulf
of Bothnia

Gulf of Bothnia

Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone

Sweden

SWE

19,98349023

62,94477473

52736,3

14

508

Swedish part of the
Kattegat

Kattegat

Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone

Sweden

SWE

12,1010711

56,91288566

7872,8

15

495

Spanish part of the Strait of Gibraltar

Strait of Gibraltar

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

-

5,697565165

36,03414435

949,11

16

506

Swedish part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Swedish Exclusive Economic Zone

Sweden

SWE

17,86452096

57,3260892

87695,92

17

492

Spanish part of the Bay
of Biscay

Bay of Biscay

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

-

4,883591778

44,23799739

71380,31


18


493

Spanish part of the Mediterranean Sea -
Western Basin

Mediterranean Sea - Western
Basin

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

3,050190803

39,29407556

151627,76

19

490

Spanish part of the Alboran Sea

Alboran Sea

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

-

3,469944085

36,24209467

28860,76

20

491

Spanish part of the Balearic (Iberian Sea)

Balearic (Iberian Sea)

Spanish Exclusive Economic Zone

Spain

ESP

1,949941221

40,08590273

80077,82

21

432

Portuguese part of the
North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic
Ocean

Portuguese Exclusive Economic Zone

Portugal

PRT

-

10,92283775

38,31921421

316462,71


22


438

Romanian Exclusive economic Zone part of the Black Sea

Black Sea

Romanian Exclusive economic Zone

Romania

ROU

30,07850479

44,24109257

29615,49

23

366

Norwegian part of the Skagerrak

Skagerrak

Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zone

Norway

NOR

9,200648811

58,36210623

15131,79

24

429

Polish part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Polish Exclusive Economic Zone

Poland

POL

17,29060329

54,90856531

29837,35

25

364

Norwegian part of the
North Sea

North Sea

Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zone

Norway

NOR

4,053897511

58,58219787

118902,84

26

365

Norwegian part of the Norwegian Sea

Norwegian Sea

Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zone

Norway

NOR

10,78764633

68,19458455

628264,16


27


338

Montenegrin Exclusive economic Zone part of
the Adriatic Sea


Adriatic Sea


Montenegrin Exclusive economic Zone


Montenegro


MNE


18,68014695


41,87023426


6392,01

28

363

Norwegian part of the Barentsz Sea

Barentsz Sea

Norwegian Exclusive Economic Zone

Norway

NOR

28,60794931

72,69014357

162557,94

29

312

Lithuanian part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Lithuanian Exclusive Economic Zone

Lithuania

LTU

20,36411702

55,75526902

6795,69


30


324

Maltese part of the
Mediterranean Sea - Eastern Basin

Mediterranean
Sea - Eastern Basin


Maltese Exclusive Economic Zone


Malta


MLT


15,11120672


35,31355431


53151,3

31

306

Latvian part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Latvian Exclusive Economic Zone

Latvia

LVA

20,48416091

56,94892791

20194,05

32

307

Latvian part of the Gulf of Riga

Gulf of Riga

Latvian Exclusive Economic Zone

Latvia

LVA

23,50842253

57,49050898

8007,45


33


252

Italian part of the Mediterranean Sea -
Eastern Basin

Mediterranean Sea - Eastern
Basin


Italian Exclusive Economic Zone


Italy


ITA


14,92228084


36,33054896


73871,16

34

268

Jersey part of the English Channel

English Channel

Jersey Exclusive Economic Zone

Jersey

JEY

-

2,191155428

49,12150415

2272,56

35

249

Italian part of the Adriatic Sea

Adriatic Sea

Italian Exclusive Economic Zone

Italy

ITA

15,43053599

42,61435538

62994,5

36

250

Italian part of the Ionian Sea

Ionian Sea

Italian Exclusive Economic Zone

Italy

ITA

17,23575057

38,21689844

86964,59


37


245

Irish part of the Irish Sea and St. George's Channel

Irish Sea and St. George's Channel


Irish Exclusive Economic Zone


Ireland


IRL

-

5,812573768


53,03291935


10520,15

38

246

Irish part of the North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

Irish Exclusive Economic Zone

Ireland

IRL

-

12,59928276

53,10981166

326739,4

39

243

Irish part of the Celtic
Sea

Celtic Sea

Irish Exclusive Economic Zone

Ireland

IRL

-

9,293200078

50,44663895

82432,62


40


244

Irish part of the Inner Seas off the West Coast
of Scotland

Inner Seas off the West Coast
of Scotland


Irish Exclusive Economic Zone


Ireland


IRL

-

7,531506909


55,54761848


5820,26


41


154

Greek part of the Mediterranean Sea - Eastern Basin

Mediterranean Sea - Eastern Basin


Greek Exclusive Economic Zone


Greece


GRC


24,61950924


34,94228907


223694,29

42

169

Guernsey part of the English Channel

English Channel

Guernsey Exclusive Economic Zone

Guernsey

GGY

-

2,658445946

49,63967643

6512,52

43

152

Greek part of the Aegean
Sea

Aegean Sea

Greek Exclusive Economic Zone

Greece

GRC

25,02621206

37,76403718

174083,47

44

153

Greek part of the Ionian Sea

Ionian Sea

Greek Exclusive Economic Zone

Greece

GRC

20,06579013

37,8117117

84774,78

45

148

German part of the North Sea

North Sea

German Exclusive Economic Zone

Germany

DEU

6,786943326

54,58562171

41155,61

46

151

Greek part of the Adriatic Sea

Adriatic Sea

Greek Exclusive Economic Zone

Greece

GRC

19,3561755

39,90119254

2240,34

47

146

German part of the
Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

German Exclusive Economic Zone

Germany

DEU

12,74127751

54,46413957

15219,88

48

147

German part of the
Kattegat

Kattegat

German Exclusive Economic Zone

Germany

DEU

9,798437789

54,81067378

139,9

49

139

French part of the North Sea

North Sea

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

2,148693287

51,20723434

1744,51

50

140

French part of the Tyrrhenian Sea

Tyrrhenian Sea

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

9,69161977

41,9945828

6848,24


51


137

French part of the Mediterranean Sea -
Western Basin

Mediterranean Sea - Western
Basin


French Exclusive Economic Zone


France


FRA


6,384764878


42,52541058


77402,64

52

138

French part of the North Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic Ocean

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

-

7,888854276

46,66479172

54443,59

53

135

French part of the English Channel

English Channel

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

-

1,592305694

49,55885404

36500,41

54

136

French part of the Ligurian Sea

Ligurian Sea

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

9,08906744

43,24004998

3443,61

55

133

French part of the Bay of Biscay

Bay of Biscay

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

-

3,297424447

45,90739928

103056,46

56

134

French part of the Celtic Sea

Celtic Sea

French Exclusive Economic Zone

France

FRA

6,348470815

47,98213768

61264,15

57

130

Finnish part of the Gulf of Bothnia

Gulf of Bothnia

Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone

Finland

FIN

21,47086081

62,35516158

60682,35

58

131

Finnish part of the Gulf
of Finland

Gulf of Finland

Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone

Finland

FIN

25,3487715

60,04415255

9768,89

59

125

Estonian part of the Gulf of Riga

Gulf of Riga

Estonian Exclusive Economic Zone

Estonia

EST

23,28759817

58,26131827

10685,04

60

129

Finnish part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone

Finland

FIN

21,24095439

59,49214849

10123

61

123

Estonian part of the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea

Estonian Exclusive Economic Zone

Estonia

EST

21,60848259

58,66000782

17154,08

62

124

Estonian part of the Gulf of Finland

Gulf of Finland

Estonian Exclusive Economic Zone

Estonia

EST

25,42717508

59,61300827

8379,58

63

98

Danish part of the
Skagerrak

Skagerrak

Danish Exclusive Economic Zone

Denmark

DNK

9,495469665

57,65663049

10283,95

64

106

Dutch part of the North Sea

North Sea

Dutch Exclusive Economic Zone

Netherlands

NLD

4,186544521

53,61207821

64034,24

65

96

Danish part of the Kattegat

Kattegat

Danish Exclusive Economic Zone

Denmark

DNK

11,07847524

56,20367896

27434,71

66

97

Danish part of the North Sea

North Sea

Danish Exclusive Economic Zone

Denmark

DNK

6,527250306

56,16975224

49387,15

67

47

Bulgarian part of the
Black Sea

Black Sea

Bulgarian Exclusive Economic Zone

Bulgaria

BGR

29,20164655

42,93395618

34785,15


68


94

Cypriote part of the
Mediterranean Sea - Eastern Basin

Mediterranean
Sea - Eastern Basin


Cypriote Exclusive Economic Zone


Cyprus


CYP


32,63525755


34,48929064


98928,95

69

34

Belgian part of the North Sea

North Sea

Belgian Exclusive Economic Zone

Belgium

BEL

2,705038547

51,46544555

3482


70


39

Bosnian and Herzegovinian part of the Adriatic Sea


Adriatic Sea

Bosnian and Herzegovinian Exclusive Economic Zone

Bosnia and Herzegovina


BIH


17,59256055


42,91655963


12,99

71

1

Albanian part of the
Adriatic Sea

Adriatic Sea

Albanian Exclusive Economic Zone

Albania

ALB

19,11030394

40,93095913

12149,85

72

2

Albanian part of the Ionian Sea

Ionian Sea

Albanian Exclusive Economic Zone

Albania

ALB

19,97117635

39,69394302

38,9

73

251

Italian part of the Ligurian Sea

Ligurian Sea

Italian Exclusive Economic Zone

Italy

ITA

8,869746265

43,84520189

13505,26

74

254

Italian part of the
Tyrrhenian Sea

Tyrrhenian Sea

Italian Exclusive Economic Zone

Italy

ITA

12,22520475

40,05838185

210447,19

75

476

Slovenian part of the Adriatic Sea

Adriatic Sea

Slovenian Exclusive Economic Zone

Slovenia

SVN

13,57896207

45,56287487

214,32


76


253

Italian part of the Mediterranean Sea - Western Basin

Mediterranean Sea - Western Basin


Italian Exclusive Economic Zone


Italy


ITA


7,78426987


39,82920779


90245,86


77


910095

Danish Western part of the Baltic Sea


Baltic Sea


Danish Exclusive Economic Zone


Denmark


DNK


14,1210502


54,99219392


17269,89


78


920095

Danish Eastern part of the Baltic Sea


Baltic Sea


Danish Exclusive Economic Zone


Denmark


DNK


14,1210502


54,99219392


17269,89

Annex 2: Map of the maritime regions for each country

...