The animated This animation layer shows precipitation accumulations forecasted for the upcoming five days, with leadtimes from 0-120h. Forecasts for lead times out to six hours are hourly, and six-hourly thereafter. ~80th percentile~
These precipitation accumulations have been obtained by seamless blending of the:
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(ii) 51-members ensemble of 1-h accumulation forecasts obtained by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS).
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The displayed accumulations correspond to the forecasts obtained with the control member, and are of the 80th percentile of rainfall.
References
Berenguer, M., Sempere-Torres, D. and Pegram, G, 2011: SBMcast - An ensemble nowcasting technique to assess the uncertainty in rainfall forecasts by Langrangian extrapolation. Journal of Hydrology, 404(3), 226-240
Park, S., Berenguer, M. and Sempere-Torres, D, 2019: Long-term analysis of gauge-adjusted radar rainfall accumulations at European Scale. Journal of Hydrology, 573, 768-777
Wong, W., Yeung, L., Wang, Y. and Chen, M, 2009: Towards the Blending of NWP with Nowcast - Operation Experience in B08FDP. WMO Symoisum on Nowcasting, 30 Aug- 4 Sep, Whistler, Canada.