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Marine spatial planning is one the most important activities for marine-focussed policy-makers and regulators. Marine spatial planning, including the designation of conservation areas, is usually undertaken based on the current uses of territorial waters, advising exclusive use or co-location of
multiple uses based on trade-offs across economic sectors, as well as maximising environmental sustainability.
This approach may be informed by stock assessment processes and other scientific advice that considers the progression of an ecosystem and its resources to the present time. However, based on this information alone, it is difficult to consider within planning mechanisms how pervasive and wide-scaled processes linked to climate change are and will continue to modify the distribution and availability of marine living resources, as well as the distribution of habitats suitable for species of conservation value. This is because climate change imposes combinations of environmental stressors and ecosystem conditions on marine species that may be markedly different from those historically observed within a region.
Marine spatial planning commitments can often take no account of how resources could change in time. This is important since changes happening in the ocean, driven by pressures associated with climate change, will modify the future distribution of marine resources underlying the conservation, fisheries and aquaculture sectors.
The NEMO-ERSEM and POLCOMS-ERSEM dataset can be used to support marine spatial planning by providing a sound scientific basis with which to assess dependencies between the status of environmental conditions that may affect fisheries returns and marine conservation effectiveness, including present and future climate change. Models can also offer the possibility to explore management scenarios and anticipate 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses resulting from the pressures of climate change on marine species.
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