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- over different geographical areas
- for different parameters
- for each forecast time
- over different forecast intervals.
- or a combination of the above.
Currently clustering summarises the range of synoptic flow patterns from the ensemble over a restricted area in two forms:
- Weather scenario clustering is performed on medium range ensemble output over a restricted area covering Europe and the northwest Atlantic. It highlights the differences between medium range scenarios in terms of the large-scale flow.
- Weather regime clustering summaries are based on one of four climatological regimes which have been derived from reanalysed data over a rather larger area covering Europe and the north Atlantic. It also provides information about the possible transitions between regimes during the forecast
Clustering is a compromise between the advantage of condensing a large amount of ensemble output against the disadvantage of losing possibly important information. A convenient overview of ensemble members forecast information can be gained from using:
- a cluster mean (the average over all members in a cluster).
- a most representative member which typifies the members within that cluster.
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- (MRM or cluster scenario) which is the ensemble member closest to its centre
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Weather regime clusters are one of four climatological regimes which have been derived from reanalysed data.
Current use of clustering
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- and typifies the members within that cluster. Each most representative member is then attributed to one of the weather regime clusters
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