Hydrological Products
^: associated daily time series available through the Copernicus Climate Change Climate Data Store 30 days after issue of the forecast
Product name | Description (established over forecast horizon) | Outputs | Forecasting horizon | Forecast Model | |
Medium-range | COSMO > 20-year RP | Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.
| Map | 5.5 days | COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) |
Medium-range | COSMO >5-year RP | Number of COSMO-LEPS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.
| Map | 5.5 days | COSMO (up to 5 days only; not full EFAS spatial domain) (20) |
Medium-range | Det. DWD | Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic DWD forecast. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.
| Map | 7 days | DWD-DET (1) |
Medium-range | Det. ECMWF | Return period exceedance map showing the highest return period exceedance within the forecast range based on the deterministic ECMWF forecast. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s.
| Map | 10 days | DWD-DET (1) |
Medium-range | ECMWF-ENS >20-year RP | Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 20-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s. | Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) |
Medium-range | ECMWF-ENS >5-year RP | Number of ECMWF-ENS based forecasts exceeding the EFAS 5-year return period threshold. Only shown for points with 1-year return period threshold exceeding 20m3/s. | Map | 10 days | ECMWF-ENS (51) |
Seasonal range | Seasonal outlook^ | River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next eight weeks, aggregated over regions. The anomaly is calculated from the current seasonal hydrometeorological forecast, which is produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble of the ECMWF System 5 seasonal forecast. The thresholds for high and low probability are with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 29-year model climatology run (1991-2019). The seasonal forecast outlook plots are updated on a weekly basis with the latest weekly averaged water balance. A new seasonal forecast outlook (map and plots) is generated at the beginning of each month when the new forecast becomes available (usually on the 8th of the month). | Map Graph of weekly averaged hydrograph (box-plots) | 8 weeks | SEAS5 (51) |
Sub-seasonal range | Sub-seasonal outlook | River flow anomaly and its probability of occurrence for the next six weeks, aggregated over regions. The anomaly is calculated from the current sub-seasonal hydrometeorological forecast, which is produced by forcing the LISFLOOD model with the 51 members ensemble of the ECMWF extended-range ensemble forecast up to 46 days. The thresholds for high and low probability are with respect to the 90th and 10th percentiles of the simulated discharge from a 29-year model climatology run (1991-2019). A new sub-seasonal forecast outlook (maps and plots) is generated every day from 27 June 2023 and twice weekly, each Monday and Thursday, beforehand.
| Map Graph of weekly averaged hydrograph (box-plots) | 6 weeks | ECMWF-ENS (51ENS (101 members, of which the first 51 are used in EFAS sub-seasonal) |
