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  • Grand ensembles:  An ensemble of model runs using different models but starting from the same data times.
  • Lagged ensembles:  An ensemble of recent past and latest model runs merged into a grand ensemble.  Lagged ensembles can include results from past ENS runs and/or from different models or both.  (See Fig6.3.5). 

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Fig6.3.5: Schematic illustration of the relation between the latest ENS (green lines), the three latest CTRL (or HRES) (red lines), and results from other forecast models (blue lines).  Here the three latest CTRL (or HRES) solutions are in agreement with ENS solution but two other forecast models show some more extreme troughs or higher maxima.


Forecasters may have to assess the probability of an event by balancing probability information from each of several sources.  It is not unusual to have to balance information such as:

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