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Fig8.2.3.2: The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) product takes into account number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms forecast by the extended ensemble during the weekly period within each arbitrarily defined ocean basin, and totals their energy.  This value is compared with a similarly derived ACE from the extended range for the same week to determine the significance level for the given basin.  If this is greater than 90% the basin is shaded.  Green bars represent the forecast and orange bars the real climatology - these can be directly compared.



Tropical storm strike probabilities

This product shows a grid point chart of tropical storm strike probability (probability of a tropical storm passing within 300km), calculated over weekly periods.  It is similar to the tropical cyclone activity charts produced for the medium-range forecasts. 

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