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The horizontal and vertical resolutions of the medium range ensemble (ENS) became the same as for the HRES after the upgrade to IFS (Cy48r1) introduced in June 2023. The HRES forecast and the unperturbed ENS control forecast are meteorologically equivalent and equally skilful on average. They have the same physical and dynamical representation of the atmosphere and use the same parameterisation of sub-gridscale effects. However, they can diverge on a day-to-day basis due to small technical differences and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. The HRES will continue for the time being for ease of use by customers and users.
On average, HRES is the most accurate single-run realisation of the broadscale weather patterns. But any individual HRES forecast may not be the most skilful compared to ENS member forecasts, and in isolation it cannot provide an estimate of forecast uncertainty or confidence.
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Definitive information on the ECMWF dissemination schedule and products can be found in the the Catalogue of ECMWF real-time products (ENS: Set 1).
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