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Table of Contents

Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC)

The Relative Operating Characteristics give a measure of the effectiveness of a forecast system to predict an event that actually happens balanced against forecast of an event that fails to occur.   ROC is derived from measuring the area beneath the results plotted on a ROC diagram.  ROC area values indicate:

  • ROC value 1.0 implies consistent Hit Rate and no False Alarms.
  • ROC value 0.5 implies no skill with as many Hits as False Alarms. 
  • ROC value 0.0 implies consistent False Alarm rate and no Hits.  

Relative Operating Characteristics skill score charts

The Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) skill score charts give a measure of how well the seasonal (SEAS5) forecast anomalies have represented the observed anomalies.

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