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Graphcast - grey
PangyWeather - cyan
Model climate based on medium-range (cyan) based reforecasts with 1800 fields. Climate maximum as triangle (to be added).
The ensemble gained the signal of the extreme from 25 December to 27 December. The machine-learning models (especially PanguWeather) struggled with the magnitude of the extreme in the medium-range. All forecasts were warmer than the mean of the observations (based on the stations in Alvsbyn and Vidsel).
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Extended-range ensemble purple box-and-whisker
Model climate based on extended-range (pink) based reforecasts with 1800 fields. Climate maximum as triangle (to be added).
The plot below shows the same as above but for a 1x1 degree box in Estonia.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly temperature anomalies for 1-7 January.
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