...

Expand
title Click here to expand the list of datasets covered by this document
Deliverable ID Product title Product type (CDR, ICDR) C3S Version Number Public Version Number Delivery date Climate and energy related variables from the Pan-European Climate Database derived from reanalysis and climate projections CDR v1.0 v1.0 22/08/2024

...

Acronyms and abbreviations

Expand
title Click here to expand the list of acronyms and abbreviations
Acronym/abbreviation Definition AM Annual Maxima AOI Angle of Of Incidence API Application Programming Interface AR6 Sixth Assessment Report ASCII American Standard Code for Information Interchange BHI Beam Horizontal Irradiance BIAS Data that have been bias-adjusted C3S Copernicus Climate Change Service CDFt Cumulative Distribution Function transfer CDO Climate Data Operators CDS Climate Data Store CMIP6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (sixth phase) CMR5 CMCC-CM2-SR5 CSP Concentrated Solar Power DHI Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance DMP Data Management Plan DNI Direct Normal Irradiance DTU Technical University of Denmark ECE3 EC-Earth3 ENTSO-E European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity ERAA European Resource Adequacy Assessment ESFG Earth System Grid Federation ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute GCM Global Climate Model GHI Surface solar radiation downwards GMC General Climate Model GPU Generation Per Unit GTI Global Tilted Irradiance HOL Hydropower open-loop pumped storage inflow energy HP Hydro Power HPI Hydropower run-of-river with pondage inflow energy HPO Hydropower run-of-river with pondage generation energy HPS Hydro Pumped Storage HRG Hydropower reservoirs generation energy HRI Hydropower reservoirs inflow energy HRO Hydropower run-of-river generation energy HRR Hydropower run-of-river inflow energy HWS High Wind Speed IC Installed Capacity IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LOYO Leave-One-Year-Out MAE Mean Absolute Error MEHR MPI-ESM1-2-HR NDA Non-Disclosure Agreement nMAD normalized Mean Absolute Deviation nMBD normalized Mean Bias Deviation NNSE Normalized Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NUT0 Country level of aggregation NUT2 Sub Country/Provinces level of aggregation ORIG Data that have not been bias-adjusted PECD Pan-European Climate Database PEOF Pan-European Bidding Zones Offshore level of aggregation PEON Pan-European Bidding Zones Onshore level of aggregation POA Plane of Of Array PV Photo Voltaic QGIS Quantum Geographic Information System RF Random Forest SEDAC Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center SFOE Swiss Federal Office of Energy SPV Solar Photovoltaic SSPs Shared Socio-economic Pathways SZA Solar Zenith Angle SZOF Pan-European Zones Offshore level of aggregation SZON Pan-European Zones Onshore level of aggregation TA 2m temperature TAW Population-weighted temperature TOA Top Of the Atmosphere TP Total precipitation TSO Transmission System Operator UTC Coordinated Universal Time VM Virtual Machine WMO World Meteorological Organization WOF Wind power offshore WON Wind power onshore WPP Wind Power Plant WS10 10m wind speed WS100 100m wind speed

Introduction

This document describes the technical methodologies and implementation of the climate and energy indicators underpinning the Pan-European Climate Database (PECD), co-developed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Energy service in close collaboration with the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E).

Technical documentation of the workflows and their modules is provided below. The workflows are structured according to the two streams covered by PECD: historical and projections. Each routine is described in terms of its inputs, outputs, and processing steps. There is no operational chain in place for near real-time updates of the datasets. However, regular updates of historical data will be performed annually.

Note
In the PECDv4.1, only three Global Climate Models (GCMs) were used. However, it is important to note that using a larger set of models is essential for adequately capturing the uncertainty inherent in climate projections. Future versions, such as PECDv4.2, will incorporate a wider range of models and scenarios to improve the representation of uncertainties.

A detailed description of the filenames of the the provided data is available in the Appendix.

...

The adopted bias adjustment procedure, applied only to WS10, comprises three steps detailed below (see also Figure 2.9 and 2.10). Once the WS10 is bias-adjusted with this procedure, the WS100 is extrapolated by applying the alpha coefficients (Section 2.2).:

1) Pre-processing: The ORIG 

...

Figure 2.12: TA (top) and TAW (bottom) averaged 1980 to 2021 over Bidding Zones bidding zones (SZON).

Spatial aggregation

Anchor
Section2_5 Section2_5

...

Table 2.1: Required spatial aggregation for PECDv4.1.

Anchor
Figure2_13 Figure2_13

 

Image Modified

Image ModifiedImage Modified

Figure 2.13: Examples of the original polygons used to derive the float masks.

...

For future onshore wind installations, turbines with specific powers ranging from 198 to 335 W/m², as shown in Swisher et al. (2022), are used. For future offshore wind installations, turbines with specific powers of 316 and 370 W/m² are used. The selected specific powers are the same as those used in the PECD 2021 update. An overview of the simulated future wind technologies is given in Table 2.5 and Table 2.6. Wakes are considered for all future technologies (Swisher et al., 2022). The specific power and hub height are the main drivers for variation in the resulting generation time series; the rotor diameter and rated power have limited impact (as a result are , which also lists the corresponding options found in the widget "Technological specification" in the download form. Each wind technology option is labeled with a number representing a specific combination of hub height (HH) and specific power (SP). For example, "21 (SP316 HH155)" refers to offshore wind power with a specific power of 316 W/m² and a hub height of 155 m. These labels allow users to easily select the desired wind turbine specification from the dataset.

Wakes are considered for all future technologies (Swisher et al., 2022). The specific power and hub height are the main drivers for variation in the resulting generation time series; the rotor diameter and rated power have limited impact (as a result are given in standardized generation, i.e., in values between 0 and 1). Compared to the previous version of the work, the onshore wind turbine-rated power is increased to 5 MW (from 3.6 MW), based on feedback from ENTSO-E.

The more generic model (to run any combination of specific power and hub height), as presented in the previous section is also made available. This enables plant-level power curves to be estimated for any combination of specific power, hub height, and plant size (within the supported range shown in Table 2.4).

...

Table 2.5: Future technology onshore wind turbines.

Anchor
Table2_6 Table2_6

Table 2.6: Future technology offshore wind turbines.

The storm shutdown behavior is modeled as described in Murcia et al. (2021), assuming a direct (non-controlled) shutdown for all existing wind power plants (WPPs), using data from the WindPowerNet WPP installation database for the shutdown wind speeds. For future wind technologies, a 25 m/s cut-off is assumed for onshore wind installations, and the HWS (High Wind Speed) Deep type from Murcia et al. (2021) is used for future offshore wind installations (as in the PECD 2021 update). The shutdown procedure is modeled as a 'hysteresis,' where a restart occurs only after the wind speed has dropped to a sufficiently low value for a restart to take place (see Figure 2.16). The storm shutdown is a dynamic model that captures three aspects:

...

Once the PV capacity factor product is generated for the PECD-constrained ERA5 grid, regional estimates for bidding and study PECD zones are calculated through a spatial average. However, it is important to note that particular (restricted) areas were masked in both the grid-like and regional-based products to produce more accurate results. Specifically, sea and ocean areas (thus, off-shore PV), polar and protected areas, as well as locations with high elevation (above 2000 m a.s.l.) or slope (higher than 10%) were excluded from the computation. While high elevation may be unsuitable as an exclusion criterion at a global scale (notably for Chile), we found that for the PECD area this does not pose issues in terms of final PV estimates. The information to identify such regions was obtained from a range of sources (see Section 2.9).

...

The modelled solar production operation strategy consists of two assumptions: if the solar field produces more power than required to produce at rated power, the excess energy will be stored. If the solar field produces less than the required to generate at rated power, the storage will discharge the energy required to bring it to rated power (see Figure 2.30). Such an operation strategy does not need knowledge of market prices. The link between solar multiple and thermal energy storage is the same as used in the previous version of PECD (see Table 2.8). The CSP model is recalibrated using the newest climate data.

The best 50% of locations (in terms of mean DNI, for each PECD region separately) are selected as the simulated CSP installation locations. Two runs are performed in the CSP analysis:

...

climate data.

The best 50% of locations (in terms of mean DNI, for each PECD region separately) are selected as the simulated CSP installation locations. Two runs are performed in the CSP analysis:

1. CSP plants are simulated without energy storage.
   
2. CSP plants with 7h of thermal energy storage.

In the widget "Technological specification" in the download form, each CSP option is represented by a number corresponding to whether the plant includes energy storage and whether the energy is considered before or after dispatch. The available options are the following:

• 40 (Pre-dispatch, no storage): indicates potential energy generation before storage, with no storage capacity;
• 41 (Dispatched, no storage): energy actually dispatched from a plant with no storage capacity;
• 42 (Pre-dispatch, 7-hours of storage): potential energy generation from a plant with 7 hours of storage, before dispatch;
• 43 (Dispatched, 7-hours of storage): energy actually dispatched from a plant with 7 hours of

...

• storage.

Anchor
Figure2_30 Figure2_30

...

Footnotes Display

Spatial interpolation

Anchor
Section3_3 Section3_3

Starting from a common 100 km nominal spatial resolution and global domain, each model has its own grid, necessitating spatial interpolation to the PECD domain at 0.25° x 0.25°. This interpolation uses the bilinear method as implemented in the CDO

...

Anchor
Table3_6 Table3_6

Table 3.6: Wind run types for projection stream.

Photovoltaic Solar Power conversion model

The climate data used as input are listed in Table 3.4, and the procedure is the same as described in Section 2.9.2. 

...

The energy indicators are the same as described in Section 2.10 for the historical stream computed starting from the climate indicators listed in Table 3.5.

In Table 3.7, the energy variables contained in this database are summarized. Table 3.7 provides detailed information for each variable, including the type, the time period covered, the source of the input data, the domain, the temporal resolution, the spatial aggregation (according to Table 2.1), and, where applicable, the different technologies used to compute the final time series.

Anchor
Table3_7 Table3_7

Table 3.7: Energy indicators provided in the PECDv4.1 for the projection stream. Files provided at ORIG spatial aggregation are gridded (NetCDF format), while all the other levels of aggregation are provided in CSV format.

...

Anchor
Table4_1 Table4_1

Table 4.1: Filename convention used in the PECDv4.1.

Example of filename: H_ERA5_ECMW_T639_TP-_0000m_Pecd_025d_S198501010000_E198501310000_ACC_MAP_01d_NA-_noc_org_NA_NA---_NA---_NA—_

...

PECD4.1_fv1.nc

This NetCDF file (.nc) contains historical data (H) from ERA5 reanalysis (ERA5 and 7639) originated by ECMWF (ECMW); the variable is total precipitation (TP-) at 0m height (0000m), the coverage is PECD domain (Pecd) with a 0.25° spatial resolution (025d). Data span from 01/01/1985 at 00:00 UTC (S198501010000) to 31/01/1985 at 00:00 UTC (E198501310000). The data are accumulated (ACC), gridded (MAP), with a daily temporal resolution (01d). The lead time is not available (NA-), data are not bias-corrected (noc) and they are original (org). The ensemble number, emission scenario, energy scenario and transfer function are not available (NA_NA---_NA---_NA---). The PECD version number is v44.1 (PECD4.1) while the file version is fv1.

Metadata

The header of the time series CSV files will contain the following metadata descriptors. An example of an air temperature variable is presented below, provided as a CSV file with the filename:

...