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2024

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title12-11-2024 ECMWF forecast system change

The ECMWF model has been upgraded to the version 49r1 with major changes among many others:

  • assimilation of 2m temperature observations, 
  • Land-surface model updates,
  • increased resolution and soft-recentering of the ensemble of data assimilations (EDA)  and
  • activation of the stochastically perturbed parameterisations (SPP) model uncertainty scheme in all ensemble configurations. 

The main changes to S2S contribution from ECMWF are:

  • The re-forecasts frequency changed to every two days: 1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17/19/21/23/25/27/29/31 (excluding 29 February)
  • The parameter CAPE (59) was discontinued and replaced by MUCAPE (228235). For consistency (in S2S), that parameter is still encoded as before (paramId=59).

The first realtime forecasts and on-the-fly reforecasts runs with the new cycle were on 13/11/2024

More details can be found in ECMWF Model and Implementation of IFS Cycle 49r1

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title16-10-2024 HMCR on-the-fly reforecast change

The HMCR reforecast period has changed to 1991-2020, following the request from the Lead Centre for Sub-seasonal Predictions Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-SSPMME) project to have the common reforecast period for the S2S products (https://charts.ecmwf.int/wmo/charts)

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title06-09-2024 CNR-ISAC system change

The CNR-ISAC realtime forecast outputs have been updated in the S2S archive since the 5th September 2024  as follows:

  • The lagged ensemble configuration is changed: 
    • it now uses
      • 10 perturbed initial conditions every 6 hours, taken on Wednesday at 06, 12, 18Z respectively and on Thursday at 00Z (with control run on Thursday at 00Z)
    • instead of former
      • 10 perturbed initial conditions every 6 hours, taken on Wednesday at 00, 06, 12, 18Z respectively (with control run on Thrusday at 00Z)
  • The time range is extended from 32 to 35 days
  • The output frequency for 10u/v parameters is increased from 24- to 6-hourly

The related new set of the fixed reforecasts (model version date 2023-10-16) has already been added earlier this year in May.  

More information can be found in CNR-ISAC Model 

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title27-06-2023 ECMWF forecast system change

With IFS Cycle 48r1the new ECMWF model version (48r1), the horizontal resolution of the  medium-range ensemble  (ENS) will increase from 18 to 9 km. This will bring the ENS to the same horizontal resolution as the high resolution forecast (HRES). The vertical resolution for both ENS and HRES will remain at 137 model levels and the ENS will continue to have 51 members. 

Cycle 48r1 will also bring a major upgrade to the configuration of the  extended-range ensemble  (ENS extended): Rather than being  an extension of the medium-range forecasts starting twice a week at day 15 it will  be a completely separate system, running daily from 00 UTC out to day 46 with 101 members. Over the entire forecast range the resolution will remain unchanged at 36 km horizontally and 137 model levels.

The main changes to S2S contribution from ECMWF are:

  • increased ensemble size to 101 for the real-time forecasts
  • the frequency changed to daily for the real-time forecasts since 28/06/2023
  • the same horizontal resolution for the atmosphere Tco319L137 during the whole forecast range
  • the first on-the-fly reforecasts run with the new cycle on 29/06/2023

More details can be found in ECMWF Model and Implementation of IFS Cycle 48r1

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