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Note: HRES and Ensemble Control (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical. With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams. At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.
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Use of the ensemble control member
Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical. It might be thought of as something of a substitute for HRES (Cy48 and earlier) working as a deterministic model yielding deterministic results. But the remember unperturbed ensemble control is only one member of the ensemble.
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Fig6.1-1: 1000hPa forecast from 12UTC 13 August 2010 T+156hr to 00UTC 16 August 00 UTC T+96 h, all valid at 00UTC 20 August 2010. Full lines are the 1000 hPa 1000hPa geopotential EM overlaid by the probabilities of wind speeds >10m/s. Probabilities are coloured in 20% intervals starting from 20%.
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