Page History

...

• Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) have errors in forecast positions of tropical cyclones on average less than 200 km at Day3 and less than 350 km at Day5.
• Introduction of SPP has increased spread in tropical cyclones (beneficial for strong systems and increasing capture of extremes).
• Broadly, the IFS models tend on average to move tropical cyclones rather too slowly (by about 1-2 km h^-1).
• Strike probabilities seem to be a little high.  This applies to TCs in existence at T+0, but in in view of some conflicting results this topic is currently undergoing further investigation (Nov 18).  ECMWF plans to start verifying the 'activity' product soon.
• The IFS models handle rapid intensification of tropical cyclones rather poorly.  It is quite common to see an under-estimate of the speed of intensification during periods of intensification.
• Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) have erratic errors in central pressure.  They have a relatively small average bias though tend to over-deepen the central pressure.  The ensemble Control run is generally not deep enough by around 15 hPa.   
• There is on average an under-estimation of maximum winds in the circulation, particular during periods of rapid intensification.
• Results are mixed regarding genesis of tropical cyclones:

...