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The generation of the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast signal relies on few major steps. The process is illustrated by a flowchart in Figure 1. The forecast anomaly and uncertainty signals is derived by comparing the real time forecast (top left section in Figure 1) to the 99-value percentile climatology. The climatology is generated using reforecasts over a 20-year period, which provides range-dependent climate percentiles that change with the lead time. The climate generation is described in Figure 1, in the bottom right corner of Figure 1. Further details of the real time forecasts, reforecasts and the generation of the climatologies are available here: Placeholder Description of the real time forecasts, reforecasts and climatologies as components of the CEMS-flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts.
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