Since the implementation of EFAS version 5.4 and GloFAS v4.3 in 2025, the same design of products are used for both the sub-seasonal and seasonal range forecasts in EFAS and GloFAS. This means, the previous EFAS/GloFAS seasonal products and the EFAS sub-seasonal product were replaced by the new ones, while for GloFAS the sub-seasonal product was newly introduced.
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Suggestion to move the method description of earlier seasonal and sub-seasonal here To be completed |
In a sub-seasonal or seasonal forecast, especially at the the longer ranges, the day-to-day variability of the river flow, with prediction of the actual expected flood severities, can not be expected due to the very high uncertainties. What is possible, is to rather give an indication of the river discharge anomalies and the confidence in those predicted anomalies. As the forecast range increases, the uncertainty will also generally increase and with it the sharpness of the forecasts will gradually decrease and they will more and more replicate the climatologically expected conditions with some possible positive or negative shift (i.e. anomaly). The generation of the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast signals and the related products is reflective of this and was designed to deliver a simple to understand categorical information for both the anomalies and the related associated uncertainties present in the forecast, very much relative to the underlying climatological distribution.
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