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Figure 1. Flowchart of the sub-seasonal and seasonal anomaly and uncertainty signal generation methodology.
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Further details of the real time forecasts, reforecasts and the generation of the climatologies are available here: Placeholder Description of the real time forecasts, reforecasts and climatologies as components of the CEMS-flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasts. |
The CEMS-Flood sub-seasonal products cover calendar week periods (i.e. always Monday-Sunday), while the CEMS-Flood seasonal products are valid for whole calendar month periods. The forecast signal is derived from the relationship between the calendar weekly or monthly averaged river discharge and the climatological distribution of the same weekly- or monthly-averaged values. While this naturally works for the calendar months, the fixed calendar weekly lead times in the sub-seasonal allow the users to directly compare forecasts from different forecast runs, as the verification period is fixed onto the calendar weeks. This way, the evolution of the subsequent daily sub-seasonal forecast runs (always at 00 UTC) can be monitored by looking at the exact same verification period.
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