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Moreover, the overall anomaly of the forecast is defined by the mean of the 51 ensemble member ranks (Rank-mean), which will represent a robust anomaly value without any random jumpiness. In addition, the uncertainty about these anomalies is also defined by the 51 ensemble ranks, namely by their standard deviation (Rank-std). Based on this rank standard deviation value, one of three uncertainty categories (low / medium / high) will be assigned to the forecast.
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Further information on the computation methodology of the forecast anomaly and uncertainty signals is available here: Placeholder CEMS-flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast anomaly and uncertainty computation methodology. |
Product overview
Regarding the sub-seasonal and seasonal products, two web layers are available on the EFAS and GloFAS websites. These are the river network summary map, which also includes the reporting points and the related popup windows delivering extra information about the forecast evolution, and the basin summary map (see the last column on the right of Figure 1).
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