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It should be remembered that the analysis process seeks to maintain dynamic and thermal balance within the IFS. To do this, it is possible that valid observations may be given low weight or be rejected near sharp upper troughs, or in the vicinity of deep active weather systems. Users should consider the potential for increased uncertainty in the subsequent evolution while bearing in mind the observations marked by increment vectors have, at least partially, been accepted and incline the analysis to better reflect the true structure of the atmosphere.
Fig8.1.16.3-6: Tropical cyclone strike probability for Hurricane Florence from 12UTC 6 Sep 2018 (left). Large upper troposphere increments are evident near the location of the hurricane during data assimilation (centre) and the related modifications to the IFS model atmosphere will have had some impact upon the subsequent forecast run at 00UTC 7 Sep 2018 (right).
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