This page describes the way the the anomaly and signal and uncertainty of the ensemble forecasts in the sub-seasonal and seasonal products are determined using the climatology as reference. This includes also how the expected forecast anomaly category (amongst 5 or 7 pre-defined categories) and the uncertainty category (divided in 3 categories low/medium/high) of the ensemble forecasts are determined. This is a generic procedure, which is the same for both EFAS and GloFAS, as it is executed the same way for each river pixel, regardless of the resolution, and also the same for the sub-seasonal and seasonal products, as it works in the exact same way regardless of whether it is weekly mean values, as in the sub-seasonal, or monthly mean values, as in the seasonal.
...