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- Hydrological model used: LISFLOOD (LISFLOOD*)
- Meteorological forcing:
- Sub-seasonal:
- The combination of the 9km (horizontal resolution) ECMWF ensemble forecastsand the 36km ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts from the previous run date (see EFAS Meteorological forecasts and GloFAS meteorological forecasts for further details)
- The low-resolution sub-seasonal forcing is taken from the previous available forecast run, simply because of timing, as the sub-seasonal meteo forecasts for the same day are only available with several hours delay after the high-resolution forecasts.
- The high- and low-resolution forcing is currently combined by a simple mechanical blending by using the high-resolution meteorological forcing for days 1-15, while the low-resolution meteorological forcing for days 16-45, for each of the 51 ensemble members in the same order (i.e. member 1 of ECMWF ensemble forecasts and member 1 of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecasts).
- The blending can create inconsistencies locally over complex orographical areas, due to the resolution change at day15, and also there could be some smaller inconsistencies between the ensemble because of the forcing change from 15 to 16 day, due to the mechanical blending which will mix different weather conditions from the low- and high-resolution meteorological data. However, overall as an ensemble of 51 scenarios, the blending is not expected to lead to any larger discontinuities.
- Seasonal:
- 36 km seasonal forecasts (SEAS5, LINK)
- Number of ensemble members: 51 ensemble members (one unperturbed and 50 perturbed) to represent the equally likely forecast scenarios of the future in both sub-seasonal and seasonal.
- Sub-seasonal:
- River resolution:
- 1 arcmin (~1.5 km) in EFAS
- 3 arcmin (~5 km) in GloFAS
- Run frequency:
- Sub-seasonal forecasts are generated daily at 00 UTC
- Seasonal forecasts are generated monthly on the 1st of each month at 00 UTC
- Lead time:
- Sub-seasonal has 45-day (1080 hours) lead time. Only 45 days, as although the low-resolution sub-seasonal meteo forecasts run out to 46 days, we can only rely on the 1-day-old (yesterday's) run, which means we can only run the simulations to 45 days ahead.
- Seasonal has 7-month lead time (strictly speaking 215 days for each run date)
- Forecast step:
- Sub-seasonal:
- EFAS: 6-hourly
- GloFAS: 24-hourly
- Seasonal: 24-hourly in both EFAS and GloFAS
- Sub-seasonal:
- Hydrological forecast initialisation:
- Sub-seasonal is initialised from a fillup simulation forced with the shortest-range ENS-Control (unperturbed member of the ECMWF ensemble forecast) meteorological conditions.
- Seasonal is initialised from hydrological monitoring simulation, which is forced with gridded meteorological observations in EFAS and ERA5 meteorological reanalysis data in GloFAS.
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