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The overall expected anomaly category of the forecast (one of 5 categories, shown by colours in the river network and basin summary maps and in the hydrograph in the pop-up window; and one of 7 categories (with the middle 'Near normal' one extended into 3), highlighted in the probability evolution table in the pop-up window) is defined by the mean of the 51 ensemble member ranks (rank-mean), which represents a robust anomaly value without any random jumpiness. In addition, the uncertainty about these anomalies is also defined using the standard deviation of the 51 ensemble ranks (rank-std). Based on this rank standard deviation value, one of three uncertainty categories (low / medium / high) are assigned to the forecast.
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The river network map highlights the combined forecast anomaly/uncertainty signal on the rivers, including all river pixels above 250 km2 in EFAS and 1000 km2 in GloFAS. The forecast signal is indicated by colouring, with each displayed river pixel coloured at any time, reflecting the level of anomaly forecasted. Five anomaly categories (with the middle 'Near normal' one combining 3 categories of the extended 7-category version) are shown with different colours, with the uncertainty level supplementing it by one of the three predefined intensities.
The overall expected anomaly category of the forecast (one of 5 categories, shown by colours in the river network and basin summary maps and in the hydrograph in the pop-up window; and one of 7 categories (with the middle 'Near normal' one extended into 3), highlighted in the probability evolution table in the pop-up window) is defined by the mean of the 51 ensemble member ranks (rank-mean), which represents a robust anomaly value without any random jumpiness. In addition, the uncertainty about these anomalies is also defined using the standard deviation of the 51 ensemble ranks (rank-std). Based
The overall expected anomaly category of the forecast (one of 5 categories, shown by colours in the river network and basin summary maps and in the hydrograph in the pop-up window; and one of 7 categories highlighted in the probability evolution table in the pop-up window) is defined by the mean of the 51 ensemble member ranks (rank-mean), which represents a robust anomaly value without any random jumpiness. In addition, the uncertainty about these anomalies is also defined usi
From the river network summary map, the reporting point popup products can be accessed by clicking on the point markers on the river network layer (See more on reporting point). The popup products contain metadata information about the stations, a hydrograph with the evolution of the climatological, antecedent and forecast conditions, and the probability values for 7 anomaly categories (the 5 categories of the map plus two additional categories around normal conditions) and the evolution of these probabilities from previous forecast runs.
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