This page summarises the important features of the EFAS GloFAS sub-seasonal outlook products. Further information on the details of the different steps generating these products is available at CEMS-flood sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast product generation methodology.
River network and basin summary maps
The EFAS The GloFAS sub-seasonal outlook layers shows the 'expected to happen' forecast anomaly and related uncertainty for the next 5-6 calendar weeks for all river pixels over 250 1000 km2 (river network layer called 'Sub-seasonal Outlook' on the map viewer) and for 204 942 major river basins over the EFAS GloFAS domain (basin layer called 'Sub-seasonal Outlook - Basins' on the map viewer), using colour-coded categories (see Figure 1). The products are updated once a day and published around mid afternoon, showing:
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The forecast evolution of the anomaly is also given in popup window products for fixed reporting points (grey squares along the river network) and basin-representative points (black circles, one point for each of the 204 predefined basins).
Figure 1: EFAS GloFAS sub-seasonal outlook maps on the EFASthe GloFAS-IS map viewer. A lead-time selection panel on the mapviewer allows the users to select the forecast period.
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From the river network summary map, the reporting point pop-up products can can be accessed by clicking on the point markers on the river network layer (grey squares showing the EFAS fixed GloFAS fixed reporting points - see more in CEMS-Flood reporting points and dynamic point generation algorithm, and the black circles showing the basin-representative points). The pop-up products contain metadata information about the stations, a hydrograph with the evolution of the climatological, antecedent and forecast conditions, and the probability values for the extended 7-value anomaly categories (the 5 main categories shown on the maps and hydrographs, extended by two additional categories within the 'Near normal' category) and the evolution of these probabilities from previous forecast runs.
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Figure 4: Combination of anomaly and uncertainty categories, defined by the mean and standard deviation of the ensemble member ranks, used used in the EFAS GloFAS Seasonal Outlook products. Note, only the 5 main categories are used in the map layers and the hydrograph, with the near-normal categories merged together into 'Near