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Section 1 Introduction
Section 2 The ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System - IFS
Section 3 Availability and Interpolation of NWP output
Section 4 NWP Evolution versus Reality
Section 5 Forecast Ensemble (ENS) - Rationale and Construction
Section 6 Using Deterministic and Probabilistic Forecasts
Section 7 ENS Products - Dealing with Uncertainty
Section 8 ENS products - What they are and how to use them
Section 9 Physical considerations when interpreting model output
Section 9.1 Model Boundary and Surface Layers
Section 9.2 Screen Level Temperatures and Moisture
Section 9.3 Surface wind
Section 9.4 Visibility
Section 9.5 Large Scale Precipitation
Section 9.6 Convective Precipitation
Section 9.6.1 Maritime showers - non-advection inland
Section 9.6.2 Coastal, mountain and island effects
Section 9.6.3 Medium level instability
Section 9.6.4 Using available forecast products
Section 9.6.5 Impact of incorrect moisture
Section 9.6.6 Mishandling of forecast extreme convection
Section 9.6.7 Instability Indices
Section 9.7 Types of precipitation - interpretation and effects
Section 9.8 Sunshine
Section 9.9 Summary of some Important Issues
Section 10 Interfaces for displaying Model Output
Section 11 Conclusion
Section 12 Annexes
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Forecast User Guide
Section 9 Physical considerations when interpreting model output
Section 9.6 Convective Precipitation
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Convective Precipitation
Considerations regarding model convective precipitation
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