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Introduction

This page describes two studies of different convective cases; one over N. America associated with formation of severe tornadoes, the other over central Africa.

Both cases are studied starting the forecast from the same date/time (initial conditions).

The N.America case has strong large scale forcing whereas the central African case is driven by the diurnal cycle.

US Tornado convection case (Arkansas)

On the 27 April 7pm local time (00UTC 28 April), tornadoes hit towns north and west of Little Rock, Arkansas killing approx 17 people.  (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/28/us/severe-weather/index.html?hpt=hp_c2). On the evening on the 28 April fatal tornadoes occurred over Mississippi (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-27199071).

More information can also be found on the ECMWF Severe Event Catalogue 201404 - Convection - Arkansas U.S.

African diurnal deep convection (Central Africa)

 

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Initial conditions

 

Key questions to address with the control forecast

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