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Key questions to address with the control forecast
Case study: N.
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America deep convection
On 27 April 2014 7pm local time (00UTC 28 April), tornadoes hit towns north and west of Little Rock, Arkansas.
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| title | Key questions and tasks using the control forecast |
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- Understand the weather situation resulting in tornadoes
- Evaluate the control forecast and compare it to the analysis and observations
- What is the area of threat according to the control forecast?
- How does the convective adjustment process takes place and and what is the role of large scale forcing (why and where it happens)?
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Case study:
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African deep convection
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| title | Key questions and tasks using the control forecast |
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- Understand the weather situation over Africa.
- What difference and why does diurnal variation of convection make?is the role of large scale in this case (compare with N.America case).
- Look at the diurnal variation of key parameters (2m temperature, surface heat fluxes, precipitation, outgoing-longwave-radiation) for location 0N,25E.
- Compare differences in convection profiles between Central Africa and (i) open ocean, and (ii) Amazonia.
- Describe the phase and amplitude of (scaling) of the precipitation with the different experiments with respect to surface heat fluxes.
- What is it that scales precipitation flux?
Compare buoyancy flux with enthalpy. Think about the effect of local heating combined with atmospheric moisture.
What is the role of large scale in this case?
- How important is the correct diurnal cycle of precipitation and radiation for 2m temperature and dewpoint forecast?Compare differences between Central Africa and other areas (e.g. Amazonia)
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Sensitivity experiments
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