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IFS manual - convection TODO
More information about the N.American tornadoes can be found on the ECMWF Severe Event Catalogue - 201404 - Convection - Arkansas U.S
ECMWF Newsletter article TODO
Comments
The forecasting system at ECMWF makes use of "ensembles" of forecasts to account for errors in the initial state. In reality, the forecast depends on the initial state in a much more complex way than just the model resolution or starting date. At ECMWF many initial states are created for the same starting time by use of "singular vectors" and "ensemble data assimilation" techniques which change the vertical structure of the initial perturbations.
As further reading and an extension of this case study, research how these methods work.
Acknowledgements
TODO.
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