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See below for tasks and key questions to address for the control forecast before moving on to the sensitivity experiments.
TODO: Add maps.
Case study: N.America deep convection
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On 27 April 2014 7pm local time (00UTC 28 April), tornadoes hit towns north and west of Little Rock, Arkansas. | Note |
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| title | Key questions and tasks using the control forecast |
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- Understand the weather situation resulting in tornadoes
- Evaluate the control forecast and compare it to the ECMWF reanalysis and observations
- What is the area of threat according to the control forecast? TODO: explain
- How does the convective adjustment process takes place and and what is the role of large scale forcing (why and where it happens)?
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Case study: African deep convection
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TODO: note area of interest (show WV image?) | Note |
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| title | Key questions and tasks using the control forecast |
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| - Understand the weather situation over Africa.
- What is the role of large scale in this case (compare with N.America case).
- Look at the diurnal variation of key parameters (2m temperature, surface heat fluxes, precipitation, outgoing-longwave-radiation) for location 0N,25E.
- Compare differences in convection profiles between Central Africa and (i) open ocean, and (ii) Amazonia.
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Sensitivity experiments
The IFS is highly tuned to give the best forecast over a range of initial conditions. However, it is instructive to try some sensitivity experiments to understand the role of various physical and dynamical processes.
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