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The first step is to run the control forecast. Both cases can be studied with a single 30 hour forecast.

Use the initial files dated 27th April 2014 (filenames include 2014042700) starting at 00Z. Some additional initial files are provided for 22nd April and can be used for the N.America tornado case to investigate the impact of lead time on the forecast.

See below for tasks and key questions to address for the control forecast before moving on to the sensitivity experiments.

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Case study: African deep convection

Deep convection develops over central Africa as shown on the water vapour satellite image below, with the accompanying ECMWF forecast shown as a false satellite image. Note that local time for the location in central Africa shown on the map is UTC+2hrs.

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titleKey questions and tasks using the control forecast

 

  1. Understand the weather situation over Africa.
  2. What is the role of large scale in this case (compare with N.America case).
  3. Look at the diurnal variation of key parameters (2m temperature, surface heat fluxes, precipitation, outgoing-longwave-radiation) for location 0N,25E.
  4. Compare differences in convection profiles between Central Africa and (i) open ocean, and (ii) Amazonia.

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