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- How important is the correct diurnal cycle of precipitation and radiation for 2m temperature and dewpoint forecast?
Further reading
Journal publications
- Bechtold, P.
- et al, 2014, Representing Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Convection in Large-Scale Models. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 734–753. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-13-0163.1
- Bechtold, P. et al, 2008, Advances in simulating atmospheric variability with the ECMWF model: From synoptic to decadal timescales, QRMS, 134, DOI: 10.1002/qj.289
- Petch, J. C. et al , 2002: The impact of horizontal resolution on the simulations of convective development over land. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 28, 2031–2044. DOI: 10.1256/003590002320603511
Other online material
- See section on convection in description of Atmospheric Physics: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/research/modelling-and-prediction/atmospheric-physics
- More information about the N.American tornadoes can be found on the ECMWF Severe Event Catalogue - 201404 - Convection - Arkansas U.S
- ECMWF training course lecture notes on : Introduction to Moist Processes (PDF), Convection lecture 1 (PDF), Convection lecture 2 (PDF), Convection lecture 3 (PDF)
- IFS documentation, Part IV, Physical Processes - Chapter 6: convection (PDF).
- ECMWF Newsletter, summer 2014, number 140. Article on OpenIFS user workshop 2014 (Stockholm), page 2 (PDF)
Comments
The forecasting system at ECMWF makes use of "ensembles" of forecasts to account for errors in the initial state. In reality, the forecast depends on the initial state in a much more complex way than just the model resolution or starting date. At ECMWF many initial states are created for the same starting time by use of "singular vectors" and "ensemble data assimilation" techniques which change the vertical structure of the initial perturbations.
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