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- Plot and animate MSL + 500hPa maps showing track of Nadine
> 1 : Nadine MSLP and T2m (or better SST) tracking 15-20 september
> 2 : Satellite views on the 20th (provided by Etienne, if possible to put on the VM)
> 3 : Studying of the horizontal maps (analysis + forecasts)
> 4 : Studying and building of the vertical x-sections (analysis + forecasts)
> 5 : Beyond D+5 deterministic scenario : MSLP only
Exercise 2.
Task 1 : forecast error
Task 2 : compare forecast to analysis
Task 3 : visualize ensembles (plumes, ensemble spread, spaghetti, stamp, CDO)
--> These 3 tasks from last year are very interesting. To gain time maybe that we should put a group on each item for task 3 or suppress task 2 ? The CDO adds a "statistical" taint to the workshop do you think we can adapt it to our case ?
Task 4 : PCA and clustering
If not possible in Metview I can make the students plot with NCL figures 5, 6 and 7 from Pantillon.
Figure 5 shows that EOF1 accounts for 3/4 of the variance. This dipole pattern is typical when tropical interact with mid latitudes. No need to spend a lot of time on this.
Figure 6 is much more interesting. It Allows to see that we can choose 2 clusters containing approximately half of the members. The deterministic forecast is close to the two outliers and the control and the analysis belong to cluster 1.
From Figure 7 we see that cluster 1 corresponds to a cutoff moving eastward over Europe and cluster 2 to a weak ridge over western Europe.
It would be great if we could also do the cluster composite of rainfall from Figure 8 : cluster 1 shows impact on precipitation over The Cévènes whereas cluster 2 shows weak precipitation over the Cévènes.
The plot of the cluster member tracks of Nadine and the cutoff from figure 10 is also very interesting to me, I think we should do it. We see more clearly that cluster 1 exhibits a weak interaction between cutoff and low and cutoff over Europe. In cluster 2, there is a strong interaction between the cutoff and Nadine and Nadine makes landfall over the Iberian penisula (in model world, is it realistic ?). I don't know if the tracking is easy to do in Metview as it implies to track the cutoff and the low for each member.
Like you said in a previous mail, there is a possibility of interactivity for figures 7 (MSLP and Z500 composites) 8 (wind and RR composite) and 10 (member track). We have to identify by a number the cluster members and if make the students group the members to create the cluster composites. I think it is a good idea.
Task 5 : Sensitivity experiments to the SST coupling
As I am writing I am beginning to wonder if we should not make 2 groups : one for task 4 and one for task 5. Tasks 1-3 would be for all students. This would allow to keep the CDO task. What do you think ?
Appendix
Datasets available
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