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Introduction

The ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts for the western Mediterranean region exhibited high uncertainty while Hurricane Nadine was slowly moving over the eastern N.Atlantic in Sept. 2012. Interaction with an Atlantic cut-off low produced a bifurcation in the ensemble and significant spread, which controls both the track of Hurricane Nadine and the synoptic conditions downstream.

The HyMEX (Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean eXperiment) field campaign was also underway and forecast uncertainty was a major issue for planning observations during the first special observations period of the campaign.

This interesting case study examines the forecasts in the context of the interaction between Nadine and the Atlantic cut-off low in the context of ensemble forecasting. It will explore the scientific rationale for using ensemble forecasts, why they are necessary and they can be interpreted, particularly in a "real world" situation of forecasting for a observational field campaign.

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In these case study exercises

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Hello Glenn,

Here are a few comments concerning your previous emails :
1- I can provide the satellite images from 18th 00 UTC to 24th 21 UTC by a 3h or 6h step (except for the 22nd, which is not available...).
2- Véronique Ducrocq could play the role of an HyMeX operation director being the client of the students' forecast. This forecasting exercise could be done by the 8 students following the forecasting option (with me as their "teacher"), whereas the 18 others (informatic or statistic options) could keep doing more sensitivity tests while manipulating the code of the model (with Frédéric and you).
3- It would be very interesting to briefly tackle with the ECMWF Data Targeting System which was one of the observation strategies used during HyMeX SOP1. 
I precisely asked Véronique Ducrocq to speak about DTS during her presentation on Day 1.
4- ARPEGE and IFS deterministic charts are available at the French Met School between 18th and 24th sept (except the 20th runs unfortunately !). As far as I was the HyMeX forecaster myself before the 24th sept. event, I would be very interesting in the MSLP fields from the 20th 00UTC run between 25th and 28th sept. , in order to be able to illustrate (in my own Day 3 presentation) the propagation of this impressive "Gibraltar storm" I mentionned into my daily meeting report. A 6h step would be perfect, even if it is only a paper-scanned version...

...

The following datasets are available on the Virtual Machine for this workshop:

 

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the following for their contributions in preparing these exercises. From ECMWF: Glenn Carver, Sandor Kertesz, Linus Magnusson, Iain Russell, Simon Lang, Filip Vana. From ENM/Meteo-France: Frédéric Ferry, Etienne Chabot, David Pollack and Thierry Barthet for IT support at ENM.

 

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