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Introduction

The ECMWF operational ensemble forecasts for the western Mediterranean region exhibited high uncertainty while Hurricane Nadine was slowly moving over the eastern N.Atlantic in Sept. 2012. Interaction with an Atlantic cut-off low produced a bifurcation in the ensemble and significant spread, which controls both the track of Hurricane Nadine and the synoptic conditions downstream.

The HyMEX (Hydrological cycle in Mediterranean eXperiment) field campaign was also underway and forecast uncertainty was a major issue for planning observations during the first special observations period of the campaign.

This interesting case study examines the forecasts in the context of the interaction between Nadine and the Atlantic cut-off low in the context of ensemble forecasting. It will explore the scientific rationale for using ensemble forecasts, why they are necessary and they can be interpreted, particularly in a "real world" situation of forecasting for a observational field campaign.

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For more details of the OpenIFS virtual machine and how to get the workshop files, please contact: openifs-support@ecmwf.int.

ECMWF operational forecasts

At the time of this case study in 2012, ECMWF operational forecasts consisted of:

  • HRES : spectral T1279 (16km grid) highest resolution 10 day deterministic forecast.
  • ENS :   spectral T639 (34km grid) resolution ensemble forecast (50 members) is run for days 1-10 of the forecast, T319 (70km) is run for days 11-15.

At the time of this workshop (2016), the ECMWF operational forecasts has been upgraded compared to 2012 and consisted of:

  • HRES/2016 : spectral T1279 with an octahedral grid configuration providing highest resolution of 9km.
  • ENS/2016 : spectral T639 with an octahedral grid configuration providing highest resolution of 18km for all 15 days of the forecast.

Please follow this link to see more details on changes to the ECMWF IFS forecast system (

Saving images and printing

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If using the metview/openifs virtual machine with these exercises the recommended minimum memory is 4Gb. These exercises use a relatively large domain with high resolution data. Some of the plotting options can therefore require significant amounts of memory. If the virtual machine freezes when running metview, please try increasing the memory assigned to the VM.

Outline of the exercises

 

TO BE DONE (flowchart as last year?

  • Study track & development of Hurricane Nadine and the N.Atlantic cut-off low
  • Study HRES & ENS forecasts of the time
  • Study HRES & ENS forecasts using the 2016 ECMWF ensemble forecast
  • .... PCA analysis ..
  • ...etc...

 

try increasing the memory assigned to the VM.

Starting up metview

To begin:

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Please enter the folder 'openifs_2016' to begin working.

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Saving images and printing

 To save images during these exercises for discussion later, you can either use:

"Export" button in Metview's display window under the 'File' menu to save to PNG image format. This will also allow animations to be saved into postscript.

or use the following command to take a 'snapshot' of the screen:

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ksnapshot

Exercise 1. The ECMWF analysis

Recap

ECMWF operational forecasts consist of:

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titleLearning objectives
  •  Study development and behaviour of Hurricane Nadine
  • ...TO BE DONE

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Exercise 2: The operational HRES forecast

Recap

The ECMWF operational deterministic forecast is called HRES. At the time of this case study, the model ran with a spectral resolution of T1279, equivalent to 16km grid spacing.

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The following datasets are available on the Virtual Machine for this workshop: 

Further reading

For more information on the stochastic physics scheme in (Open)IFS, see the article:

Shutts et al, 2011, ECMWF Newsletter 129.

Acknowledgements

We gratefully acknowledge the following for their contributions in preparing these exercises. From ECMWF: Glenn Carver, Sandor Kertesz, Linus Magnusson, Iain Russell, Simon Lang, Filip Vana. From ENM/Meteo-France: Frédéric Ferry, Etienne Chabot, David Pollack and Thierry Barthet for IT support at ENM.

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