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Panel

For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above.

hres_rmse.mv                                : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast for the different lead timescompared to the ECMWF analyses.

hres_1x1.mv & hres_2x2.mv    : these work in a similar way to the same icons used in the previous task where parameters from a single lead time can be plotted either in a single frame or 4 frame per page.

hres_to_an_diff.mv                       : this plots a single parameter as a difference map between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors from the different lead times.

 

Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of mapType, either the Atlantic sector or over Europe.

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In this task, we'll look at the difference between the forecast and the analysis by using "root-mean-square error" (RMSE) curves as a way of summarising the performance of the forecast. Root-mean square error curves are a standard measure to determine forecast error compared to the analysis and several of the exercises will use them.

The RMSE is computed by:

Mathinline
RMSE = \sqrt( mean{ (forecast - analysis)^2 } )
 

 

Using the hres_rmse.mv icon, right-click, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curves for MSLP (mean-sea-level pressure). Repeat for the 10m wind-gust parameter wgust10.

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