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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above. hres_rmse.mv mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast compared to the ECMWF analyses.
hres_to_an_diff.mv mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference map between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors.
Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of |
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In this task, we'll look at the difference between the forecast and the analysis by using "root-mean-square error" (RMSE) curves as a way of summarising the performance of the forecast.
Root-mean square error curves are a standard measure to determine forecast error compared to the analysis and several of the exercises will use them. The RMSE is computed by taking the square-root of the mean of the forecast difference between the HRES and analyses.Right-click the hres_rmse.mv icon, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curve for z500. RMSE of the 500hPa geopotential is a standard measure for assessing forecast model performance at ECMWF (for more information see: http://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts).
Right-click the hres_rmse.mv icon, select 'Edit' and plot the RMSE curve for z500.
Repeat for the mean-sea-level pressure mslp.
Repeat for both geographical regions: mapType=1 (Atlantic) and mapType=2 (France).
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1. What do the RMSE curves show? 2. Why are the curves different between the two regions? |
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Use the hres_to_an_diff.mv icon and plot the difference map between the HRES forecast and the analysis for z500 and mslp.
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1. What differences can be seen? 2. What can said about the quality of the forecast in positioning of the Hurricane and cut-off N.Atlantic low |
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