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The last task in this exercise is to look at cross-sections through Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
Right click on the icon 'an_xs.mv', select 'Edit' and push the play 
button.
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above. hres_rmse.mv mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast compared to the ECMWF analyses.
hres_to_an_diff.mv mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference map between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors. Parameters & map appearance. These macros have the same choice of parameters to plot and same choice of |
Forecast performance
Task 1: Forecast error
In this task, we'll look at the difference between the forecast and the analysis by using "root-mean-square error" (RMSE) curves as a way of summarising the performance of the forecast.
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1. What differences can be seen? 2. What can said about the quality of the forecast in positioning of How well did the forecast position the Hurricane and cut-off N.Atlantic low? |
Look at other fields to study the forecast. For example, jet position, total precipitation (tp).
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Remember to save plots of interest for later group presentation.
TODO: What more do we need to ask the students to do here?
Exercise 3 : The operational ensemble forecasts
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