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Task 2. Ensemble spread and spaghetti plots

Use the ens_exps_to_an.mv icon and plot the ensemble spread for the different OpenIFS experiments.

Also use the ens_exps_to_an_spag.mv icon to view the spaghetti plots for MSLP for the different OpenIFS experiments.

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Panel
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titleQuestions
  1. What is the impact of reducing the resolution of the forecasts? (hint: compare the spaghetti plots of MSLP with those from the previous exercise).

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  1. How does changing the representation of uncertainty affect the spread?

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  1. Which of the experiments ens_initial and ens_model gives the better spread?

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  1. Is it possible to determine whether initial uncertainty or model uncertainty is more or less important in the forecast error?

If time:

  • use the ens_part_to_all.mv icon to compare a subset of the ensemble members to that of the whole ensemble. Use the stamp_map.mv icon to determine a set of ensemble members you wish to consider (note that the stamp_map icons can be used with these OpenIFS experiments. See the comments in the files).

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