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Panel
titleCompute EOFs and clusters

Edit 'eof.mv'

Set the parameter, choice of ensemble and forecast step required for the EOF computation:

Code Block
param="z500"
expId="ens_oper"
steps=[2012-09-24 00:00]

The above example will compute the EOF of geopotential height anomaly at 500hPa using the 2012 operational ensemble at forecast step 00Z on 24/09/2012.

A plot will be generated showing the first two EOFs (similar to Figure 5 in Pantillon et al.)

This will create a text file: (TO BE DONE)

The geographical area for the EOF computation is: 35-55N, 10W-20E (same as in Pantillon et al). If desired it can be changed in eof.mv.

Panel
titlePlot cluster maps

 The cluster_to_an.mv macro will use the clustering information and

Set the parameter to that used in eof.mv

Panel
borderColorred

Q. What do the EOFs plotted by eof.mv show?
Q. Change the parameter used for the EOF (try the 'total precipitation' field). How does the cluster change??

Panel
titlePlot cluster maps

 The cluster_to_an.mv macro will use the clustering information and

Set the parameter to that used in eof.mv

From Figure 7 in Pantillon et al. we see that cluster 1 corresponds to a cutoff low moving eastward over Europe and cluster 2 to a weak ridge over western Europe. Cluster 1 exhibits a weak interaction between Nadine and the cut-off low over Europe. In cluster 2, there is a strong interaction between the cutoff and Nadine in which Nadine makes landfall over the Iberian penisula.

 

 

 

Exercise 5. Exploring the role of uncertainty

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  • Plot PV at 320K. What are the differences between the forecast? Upper tropospheric differences played a role in the interaction of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.

 

 

 

 

Notes from Frederic

From Figure 7 we see that cluster 1 corresponds to a cutoff moving eastward over Europe and cluster 2 to a weak ridge over western Europe.

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  • low

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  • .

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Appendix

Further reading

For more information on the stochastic physics scheme in (Open)IFS, see the article:

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