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Using clustering will highlight the clusters when plotting the ensemble members in each cluster in the plots.
In this exercise you will:
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Always use the |
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Edit 'eof.mv' Set the parameter, choice of ensemble and forecast step required for the EOF computation:
Run the macro. The above example will compute the EOF of geopotential height anomaly at 500hPa using the 2012 operational ensemble at forecast step 00Z on 24/09/2012. A plot will appear showing the first two EOFs (similar to Figure 5 in Pantillon et al.) The geographical area for the EOF computation is: 35-55N, 10W-20E (same as in Pantillon et al). If desired it can be changed in |
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Q. What do the EOFs plotted by eof.mv show? |
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As described in task 1, use the cluster definition file computed by eof.mv to the plot ensembles and maps with clusters enabled. |
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Introduction
In these exercises we will look at a case study of a severe storm using a forecast ensemble. During the course of the exercise, we will explore the scientific rationale for using ensembles, how they are constructed and how ensemble forecasts can be visualised. A key question is how uncertainty from the initial data and the model parametrizations impact the forecast.
You will start by studying the evolution of the ECMWF analyses and forecasts for this event. You will then run your own OpenIFS forecast for a single ensemble member at lower resolutions and work in group to study the OpenIFS ensemble forecasts.