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The parameters available in the analyses are available in the forecast data.
Questions to consider
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- How does the HRES forecast compare to analysis and satellite images?
- Was it a good or bad forecast? Why?
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Available plot types
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For this exercise, you will use the metview icons in the row labelled 'HRES forecast' as shown above. hres_rmse.mv : this plots the root-mean-square-error growth curves for the operational HRES forecast compared to the ECMWF analyses. hres_1x1.mv & hres_2x2.mv : these work in a similar way to the same icons used in the previous task where parameters from a single lead time can be plotted either in a single frame or 4 frame per page.
hres_to_an_diff.mv : this plots a single parameter as a difference map between the operational HRES forecast and the ECMWF analysis. Use this to understand the forecast errors. |
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As for the analyses, the macros hres_1x1.mv, hres_2x2.mv and hres_xs.mv can be used to plot and animate fields or overlays of fields from the HRES forecast.
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Q. How does the timing and distribution of the precipitation from the forecast compare to the observations shown in the paper by PantillonWas it a good or bad forecast? Why? |
Suggested plots for discussion
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| borderColor | lightblue |
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| bgColor | lightlightblue |
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| titleBGColor | lightblue |
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| title | Isobaric maps |
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- Geopotential at 500hPa + MSLP : primary circulation, Figure 1 from Pantillon et al.
- MSLP + 10m winds : interesting for Nadine's tracking and primary circulation
- MSLP + relative humidity at 700hPa + vorticity at 850hPa 850hPa : low level signature of Nadine and disturbance associated with the cutoff low, with mid-level humidity of the systems.
- Geopotential + temperature at 500hPa : large scale patterns, mid-troposphere position of warm Nadine and the cold Atlantic cutoff
- Geopotential + temperature at 850hPa : lower level conditions, detection of fronts
- 320K potential vorticity (PV) + MSLP, and,
- 500hPa relative vorticity (see Fig. 14 in Pantillon) : upper level conditions, upper level jet and the cutoff signature in PV, interaction between Nadine and the cut-off low.
- Winds at 850hPa + vertical velocity at 700hPa (+MSLP) : focus on moist and warm air in the lower levels and associated vertical motion. Should not be a strong horizontal temperature gradient around Nadine, the winds should be stronger for Nadine than for the cutoff.
- 10m winds + total precipitation (+MSLP) : compare with Pantillon Fig.2., impact on rainfall over France.
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| bgColor | lightlightblue |
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| titleBGColor | lightblue |
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| title | Vertical cross-sections |
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- Potential temperature + potential vorticity
, &- : to characterize the cold core and warm core structures of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
- Humidity + vertical motion :
to characterize - another view of the cold core and warm core structures of Hurricane Nadine and the cut-off low.
- PV + vertical velocity (+ relative humidity) :
- a classical cross-section to see if a PV anomaly is accompanied with vertical motion or not.
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Exercise 3 : The operational ensemble forecasts
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