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All forecasts submitted to the AI Weather Quest are openly available via the AI Weather Quest Data Portal. Participants submit quintile-based probabilistic forecasts on a 1.5 degree latitude/longitude grid for near-surface air temperature (tas), mean sea level pressure (mslp), and accumulated precipitation (pr), targeting lead times of days 19 to 25 (week 3) and 26 to 32 (week 4). This guide explains how to download, extract, and use individual forecast files or archives.

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The following directory structures are followed:

  • by_fc_date >> / -> by_team >> / -> by_model >> / -> forecasts
  • by_team >> / -> by_model >> / -> by_fc_date >> forecasts/ -> forecasts

Each forecast A separate NetCDF file is provided for each forecasted variable and lead time submitted by a team. is stored as a separate NetCDF (.nc) file.

Zip/Tar Archives

For more efficient simplify downloading, we also provide .tar.gz archives containing all forecasts either:

  • submitted by a given team (by_team_zipfiles), or
  • issued for a given initialisation date (by_fc_date_zipfiles) 

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     tar -czf AIFS.tar.gz AIFS_forecasts/

Forecast file content

All forecasts are saved in NetCDF files created using the AI_WQ_create_empty_dataarray function in the forecast_submission module of AI Weather Quest Python Package.

All data is stored in a fractional format.

Dimensions
Dimension name Characteristics
QuintileLabelled [0.2,0.4,0.6,0.8,1.0], where the quintile value represents the upper limit of climatological conditions.
LatitudeAt a 1.5 degree spacing from 90.0 to -90.0.
LongitudeAt a 1.5 degree spacing from 0.0 to 360.0.

The files include additional attributes to support file storage and forecast visualisation. Attributes important to forecast users include:

AttributeDescription
Forecast_issue_dateForecast initialisation date (np.datetime64). 
Forecast_period_startStart of forecasting window (np.datetime64). Aids distinction between forecasting windows.
Forecast_period_endEnd of forecasting window (np.datetime64). Please note, for tas and mslp ends at 18:00:00 whilst pr ends at 00:00:00 due to differences between weekly-means and weekly-accumulations. 
teamnameTeam name associated with the submitted forecast.
modelnameModel name associated with the submitted forecast.

Examples of opening forecasts

Forecasts are easy to open in a Python environment. We highly recommend using xarray to load in an individual forecast:

import xarray as xr
fc = xr.load_dataarray([filename])

We also recommend using xarray to open multiple forecasts of the same variable and forecasting window from different models. As an example:

fcs = xr.load_dataarray('tas_20250814_p1_*.nc',combine='nested',concat_dim='modelname')

This output has an additionally dimension called modelname.


Licence information

This dataset is released under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) licence. Full licence terms can viewed here

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