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The estimation of photovoltaic (PV) capacity factors at the global scale relies on a physics-based modelling workflow inspired by Saint-Drenan et al. (2018). The approach assumes utility-scale, fixed-tilt PV installations, as these represent a significant share of the installed global PV capacity.However, the modelling framework will be open-source, allowing users to customise system configurations according to their needs.
The model implements the full simulation chain—from the downscaling of meteorological inputs to the calculation of irradiance on the tilted PV module surface and its subsequent conversion into a capacity factor. It incorporates major physical loss mechanisms (optical, thermal, and electrical), ensuring a realistic representation of PV system performance under varying environmental conditions.
Input Data and Pre-processing
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denotes the theoretical irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.
The
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K_t |
time series is linearly interpolated to 15-minute resolution and then reconverted to GHI using the same
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irradiance values. Air temperature (TA) is also interpolated linearly to 15-minute intervals. This temporal refinement enables a more accurate reconstruction of irradiance variability within each hour. Once the PV conversion is completed at the 15-minute scale, the results are averaged back to hourly values.
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R_b=\frac{\cos(\text{AOI})}{\cos(\text{SZA})} |
where AOI is the angle of incidence and SZA is the solar zenith angle, both computed using the SG2 algorithm (Blanc et al., 2012).
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Table 2.1: Parameters used in the estimation of the PV generation. Anchor Table2_1 Table2_1
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a1 | a2 | a3 | a4 | a5 |
1.4306 | -1.0084 | 1.0121 | 0.4401 | 0.1979 |
Thermal Losses
The module temperature
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Gridded SPV capacity factors at hourly resolution, assuming DC installed capacity as normalisation factor.
Aggregated indicators at ADM0 and ADM1 levels in CSV format (see Spatial Aggregation Procedure) at hourly, daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual temporal resolutions, following the Temporal Aggregation Procedure.
These capacity factors reflect local climate, system losses, and realistic tilt/azimuth configurations, offering consistent comparability across regions and timescales.
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For the references, please refer to the References section in the Product User Guide.
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This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation Agreement signed on 11/11/2014 and Contribution Agreement signed on 22/07/2021). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt, the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view. |
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