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- is run once daily:
- Day0 to Day46 based on 00UTC data and results are disseminated to Day 46.
- has horizontal resolution of 36 Km and vertical resolution of 137 model levels.
- has land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere coupling.
- has 100 ensemble members plus an unperturbed ensemble control member.
- runs with data analysed from the Short cut off data analysis (SCDA).
- dissemination schedule:
- Sub-seasonal range forecasts, schedules and products: Atmospheric model sub-seasonal forecast (Set VI).
- is run once daily:
Section 8.2 Sub-seasonal range output gives a description of sub-seasonal forecast products.
The perturbed members are similar to the unperturbed control forecast member but differ only that initial states and model physics have been perturbed. This allows exploration of the currently understood range of uncertainty in the observations and the model forecasts.
A set of sub-seasonal range re-forecasts provide a basis for the sub-seasonal range model climate (SUBS-M-climate).
Standard output products focus mainly on the week-to-week changes in the weather. Chart products generally are presented in terms of anomalies relative to the sub-seasonal range model climate (SUBS-M-climate). The anomalies are mainly shown as 7-day means for calendar weeks Monday to Sunday. From these one can infer if weather conditions (e.g. temperature, rainfall, etc) are likely to deviate from the average for a location and time of year, and whether such an anomaly could be extreme.
Sub-seasonal range forecasts are coupled to the Wave model (ECWAM) with resolution of 36km and the Dynamic Ocean model (NEMO) run with resolution of ~28km.
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Specialised products for the sub-seasonal range include information on potential tropical cyclone activity and evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is characterized by an eastward propagation of an area of more organised convection in the tropics, typically initiated over the Indian Ocean. This has an influence on the forecast skill over the extra-tropics. The MJO can influence developments elsewhere on the globe:
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- Read more on the reasoning and structure of the extended range forecasting (sub-seasonal range forecasting), Note from Cy49r1 the extended range is renamed the sub-seasonal range.
- Read about the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its impact over Europe.
- read more on sub-seasonal forecasting.
- Some information on the principle of ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VAREPS) may be found at:
(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)
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