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The majority of the surface of the earth is ocean and so the ocean/atmosphere interface is very important.  The wave model (ECWAM) provides information on sea-surface roughness and hence momentum loss in the boundary layer flow.  The dynamic ocean model (NEMO) provides information on the sea-surface temperature and hence heat exchanges in the boundary layer flow.  Changes in these parameters as the forecast progresses impact strongly on monthly or seasonal forecasting.  This is particularly important with respect to El Niño/La Nina (ENSO) or other similar developments.

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Initial sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentration are given in NEMOVAR by ORTS6.  This deals with:

• Sea surface temperature.

• Sea-ice information.

• Sea level anomalies. 

• Ocean bathymetric temperature and salinity.

Throughout the forecast period, NEMO provides the oceanic temperature structure near and at the surface.  ECWAM provides wave data, and therefore an indication of surface roughness.  From these, fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum are evaluated for passing to the lowest layers of the atmosphere by full coupling.  The formation, evolution and decay of ice over open waters is controlled by SI3 (part of NEMO).  In effect, NEMO and SI3 together move ice around (according to ocean drift etc.) and melt or form ice (according to sea-surface temperatures etc.). 

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• OSTIA and EUMETSAT OSI-SAF data are sometimes quite delayed – possibly by some 60hr.
• Uncertainty whether it’s better to adjust IFS model sea temps towards sea ice extent, or vice-versa.
• Rapid changes in sea surface temperature (e.g. upwelling) take a long time to be absorbed into OSTIA.  Rapid changes are captured rather better with NEMOVAR and OCEAN5 than OSTIA.  Errors can lead to:
  • over prediction of intensity due to unrealistic heat availability from the ocean.
  • day-to-day consistency is not always good.
  • spurious or missing areas of ice.

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• In the extra-tropics from:
  • sea surface temperatures of the initial conditions (e.g. OSTIA) plus sea surface temperature tendencies  (ΔSST in fig) from the ocean model (NEMO).
• In the tropics from:
  • ocean data assimilation system (NEMOVAR and OCEAN5) from day0day 0.
• Sea-ice forecasts are derived from the ocean model (NEMOVAR and OCEAN5).

Advantages

• There is assimilation rather than interpolation of OSI-SAF sea-ice.
• Small-scale structures in the sea surface temperature field of OSTIA are preserved.
• The coupled model is able to simulate realistically the cool wake after a TC (and possibly also after deep depressions).  Verification is often difficult as there are only few available relevant observations. See Fig2A.1.4.3-1.
• Sea surface temperature and sea-ice analysis are closer aligned to the 4D-VAR analysis, and with better timeliness.
• Tropical sea surface temperature analyses from dynamic ocean assimilation systems seem to be better than no-model assimilation systems.
• Atmosphere/ocean interface are more dynamically consistent.
• There is an increase in atmosphere/ocean coupling in the analysis.
• Ensemble scores improve (e.g. root mean square errors in Geopotential heights) decrease.

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The ocean model (NEMO) takes sea surface temperature from the ocean data assimilation system (NEMOVAR and OCEAN5).  Sea surface temperature observations may be deficient both spatially and in timeliness.

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For a variety of reasons coastal regions are important for many customers.  Sea that is immediately adjacent to coastlines are difficult for the oceanic models (NEMO) to analyse or forecast, so coastal areas are dealt with by FLake as if they were salty water lakes.  Heat, moisture and momentum fluxes are evaluated according to the proportion of the area of the grid box that is covered by open water defined by the Land-Sea Mask.  Where there is:

• more than 50% sea water cover then fluxes are dealt with by NEMO.  A mixture of land and ocean 'tiles' is not allowed, i.e. a grid box is considered 100% ocean.
• more than 50% water cover, but the bodies of water are classed as lakes (e.g. large estuaries), then the HTESSEL 'tile' is "lakes and coastal waters" and fluxes are evaluated by FLake.
• less than 50% water cover, then the HTESSEL 'tile' is "lakes and coastal waters" and fluxes are evaluated by FLake (as if it were a lake).

Tides and the covering or uncovering of coastal mudflats etc. are not considered.

See also Section on Lakes and Coastal Waters

Additional Sources of Information

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Read more on proposed ensemble reanalysis system for ocean and sea ice (ORAS6).

(FUG Associated associated with Cy50r1)Links OK, Read OK, Diags OK.